Notre Dame vs. Stanford score prediction by expert college football model

One of college football’s more historic series gets underway this weekend under the eyes of Touchdown Jesus, as No. 11 Notre Dame welcomes Stanford in Week 7 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that picks winners.

Notre Dame is coming off an open weekend after skirting past then-ranked Louisville by a touchdown the week before, moving to 4-1 on the year and giving their playoff hopes some considerable help as the program looks to rebound from an early season loss at home.

Stanford checks in at 2-3 overall and on a two-game losing skid after struggling at Clemson and then at home against Virginia Tech, getting outscored 71 to 21 in those games and looking to boost some dismal offensive numbers, ranking 105th in scoring and passing production nationally.

What do the analytics suggest for this rivalry matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Stanford compare in this Week 7 college football game.

Notre Dame vs. Stanford score prediction

As expected, the models favor the Fighting Irish over the Cardinal in this game.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Stanford by a projected score of 39 to 13 and will win the game by an expected 25.9 point margin.

The model gives the Irish a strong 95 percent chance of outright victory at home.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 154-141-3 against the spread with a 52.2 win percentage.

Notre Dame vs. Stanford odds, picks

Notre Dame is a 22.5 point favorite against Stanford, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -2000 and for Stanford at +1100 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Notre Dame -22.5
• Irish to win -2000
• Bet over 45.5 points

A majority of bettors are giving the Cardinal more of a chance against the Irish this week.

Most bets -- 57 percent -- predict that Stanford will either win in an upset, or more likely, keep the game within the generous point spread.

The other 43 percent of wagers expect Notre Dame will win the game and cover the spread.

Computer prediction

Most analytical models are giving the Fighting Irish the strong chance to win this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame is projected to win outright in the majority 96.2 percent of the FPI computer’s most recent simulations. 

That leaves Stanford as the expected winner in the remaining 3.8 percent of sims.

Notre Dame is projected to be 28.7 points better than Stanford on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How to watch Stanford vs. Notre Dame

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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