Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction: What the analytics say

This game was supposed to mean something more, but there’s still plenty on the line as No. 1 Ohio State welcomes hapless Penn State in college football’s Week 10 action.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Nittany Lions.

Ohio State is projected to win the matchup outright in the overwhelming majority 88.1 percent of the computer’s new simulations of the game.

That leaves Penn State as the presumptive winner in the remaining 11.9 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes came out on top in 17,620 predictions of the game, while the Nittany Lions edged out Ohio State in the other 2,380 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 14.9 points better than Penn State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

Ohio State is a 20.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the matchup, and it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -1800 and for Penn State at +980 to win outright.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 79.2 percent of all games and hit 44.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.