One Final Look at Louisville Baseball's 2025 NCAA Tournament Resume and Projection

Originally posted on Louisville Cardinals on SI
By Matthew McGavic | Last updated May 26, 2025 6:00 AM ET

At long last, we have finally reached Selection Monday. Following an early exit from the ACC Baseball Championship, Louisville will finally learn their NCAA Tournament draw later today.

Sporting an overall record of 35-21, the Cardinals' outlook for the Big Dance isn't quite as favorable as it was just a couple weeks ago. But despite a lackluster end to the regular season and one-and-done showing down in Durham, have they done enough to earn an at-large bid?

Let's take one final look at their NCAA Tournament resume, which you can view here.

For those unfamiliar, tournament resumes are separated into quadrants, with Quadrant 1 being the best and Quadrant 4 being the worst. Quadrants are classified based on the opponent's RPI ranking. Just like the NET in college basketball, location of the game is taken into account as well.

Despite Louisville losing seven of their last 10 games, they are still in good shape to hear their name called during the selection show. Their RPI is a major reason why.

Typically in the past if you're a team seeking an at-large bid, you want an RPI of at least 40 or better to be seriously considered to make the field. Louisville's RPI heading into the selection show is 32nd, which is just enough.

This ranking is mostly a product of taking advantage of their high-end Quad 1 opportunities. Louisville went 12-14 against Q1 teams, which is respectable, but they also went 7-4 vs. teams with an RPI of 15th or better. This includes wins over Texas and Vanderbilt, plus series wins vs. North Carolina and Florida State - all of whom are projected national seeds. For context, last year's team - which missed the Big Dance - Went just 7-16 vs. Q1 opponents.

Additionally, there are not a ton of games that absolutely tank their RPI. Sure, dropping the game vs. Bellarmine certainly qualifies, but the Cardinals are still 19-3 vs. Quad 3 and 4 teams this season.

Their record in regular season conference play is also a good indicator. Unofficially, .500 and above in conference play for ACC teams has been a good benchmark in the past for ACC teams to shoot for if they are to get an at-large bid. At 15-15, they barely were able to reach that benchmark, but reach it they did.

Put it all together, and Louisville is not only trending to make the NCAA Tournament, they're likely going to receive a better draw than people realize.

The folks over at Baseball America have Louisville heading to the Baton Rouge Regional as a No. 2 seed in their most recent NCAA Tournament projection, while D1Baseball has the Cardinals traveling to the Nashville Regional as a No. 3 in their latest projection.

When 12:00 p.m. EST rolls around, and the field of 64 is revealed on ESPN2, fans will, in all liklihood, finally get to hear Louisville's name called for the first time since 2022.