Paul Finebaum Names Major College Football Program That's a 'Long Shot' for the Playoff

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Jaron Spor | Last updated Nov 18, 2025 3:46 PM ET

As the 2025 college football season approached, the Texas Longhorns aimed to break a nearly two-decade national championship drought. For the first time in program history, Texas entered the season ranked No. 1 in the preseason AP poll. Additionally, they were the only team to qualify for each of the last two College Football Playoff semifinals.

Despite their hopes for a successful season, the Longhorns' performance has been disappointing, as they hold a 7-3 record. Their chances of making the playoffs are slipping away. On a positive note, Texas has faced tough competition, having lost to two top-five teams this season. They fell to the now-No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes in their first game, 14-7, and most recently lost 35-10 to the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs.

On "The Matt Barrie Show," SEC Network analyst Paul Finebaum expressed uncertainty about the Longhorns' chances of reaching the CFP this season.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) looks to make a pass during the first half against the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium.Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

"They look completely different," Finebaum said. "I was sitting here a week ago saying, 'Don't laugh at Texas. 9-3 a win over Texas A&M, they're in great shape.' That loss took the air out of that momentum. Two weeks from now is a long way... I think Texas is a long shot now."

According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), Texas still has a chance of making it to the College Football Playoff, with an 18.3% probability of competing in the postseason tournament. However, for this possibility to become a reality, Texas will likely need to win all its remaining games. Texas' final games are against the Arkansas Razorbacks (2-8) this weekend, and it ends the season with a game at home against the No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies (10-0).

With two games left and everything to play for, Texas must rediscover the form that made it a preseason favorite, or risk watching a once-promising season fade into another chapter of “what if?”

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: