PWHL fans have been waiting with bated breath for the guidelines to the upcoming Vancouver/Seattle expansion draft to be released, and on Monday morning, the league did just that. It’s a lot of information all at once, so here’s a summary:

What We Know

• Each existing team will lose exactly four players between the two expansion teams.
• Each existing team will submit a three-player protection list by Tuesday, June 3.
• Players eligible to be protected are those still under contract for next season, or those selected in the 2024 PWHL Draft as their signing rights are retained by their respective teams.
• From June 4 to June 8, the two expansion teams will be granted a window to sign any unprotected player, or any player on an expiring contract. A maximum of five players can be acquired in this timeframe.
• The next phase, the expansion draft itself, will take place the next day on June 9, and will continue until each expansion team has twelve players on their roster. This will only feature unprotected players, not pending free agents like in the signing window.
• After a team loses two players through either the signing window or expansion draft they are able to protect one more player before they are picked from again, for an eventual total of four players protected.

With all that established, what will the protections and selections look like? It’s not as simple a question as it seems, especially for those of us not in PWHL front offices that aren’t privy to the minutia of everything.

What We Don’t Know

• The order in which Seattle and Vancouver will select.
• How free agents will factor in to Seattle and Vancouver’s selection philosophies.
• Any relevant financial details excluding contract length (individual salaries, league salary cap, negotiated clauses, etc.)

Personally, I think it’s an exercise in futility to try to extrapolate on these in order to make a prediction, and so I won’t. I’m evaluating the teams’ eligibility lists through on-ice performance with the limited off-ice factors known in mind, and nothing more.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the scope of this exercise is specifically on the Inaugural Six teams. With the expansion draft order undetermined and no way of knowing how Seattle and Vancouver will approach the signing window, determining which players may be available to the two teams is more prudent than placing them on one or the other.

Finally, much like my playoff predictions, I fully expect the majority of this to end up aging poorly, so take it with the grain of salt it deserves. Anyway, I’ve rambled enough, let’s start from the top.

Boston Fleet

Initial Protection List: G Aerin Frankel, RW Hilary Knight, C Alina Müller

We can cross Frankel off right away. Not only is she arguably the best goaltender in the world right now at just age 25, she’s the only Fleet netminder signed for next season. Knight is on the other side of that aging curve, but with the league maximum contract length being just three years and her coming off a scoring title, any doubt about Boston’s captain should last only a few seconds. Slot her in.

The third choice is the most difficult of the bunch, but I’ve decided to go with Müller. The team’s success this year mirrored her own, more than maybe any other player in the league. The Swiss centre went pointless in her first eight games, and Boston started the season 2–1–1–4. She then dropped 19 points in her next 16, while the Fleet shot up into a dogfight for third place. After Müller’s season ended due to an injury at Worlds, out of the playoff picture they tumbled. Where she went, the Fleet went, and I think the Fleet will continue to do so in 2025–26.

Initial Losses: LW Hannah Bilka, D Megan Keller

Yep, this is gonna be rough.

Bilka also missed a sizable portion of the season due to injury in international play, but the recent first-round pick was electric while healthy. However, I’m prioritizing Müller here, as Bilka was largely deployed as a winger and has less familiarity with team systems. The more controversial non-protection here, though, is definitely Keller.

A top-pair staple on both the Fleet and the United States national team, and a Defender of the Year finalist last season, Keller is a force at both ends that I would not at all be surprised to see protected over Müller.

However, Boston’s offence is what did them in this season, and while Frankel can cover for a weaker defence, she can’t pick up the scoring slack herself. The Fleet also select early enough in the draft, before the pool of defenders notably falls off, that they can patch that hole with a Haley Winn or Nicole Gosling if they so choose.

Final Protection: D Daniela Pejšová

Pejšová’s rookie season is one of the more mystifying cases of any player around the league. The 2024 seventh overall selection started the season on the shelf, and struggled to get into Courtney Kessel’s good graces when she returned. Even after fellow first-year Sydney Bard’s ice time began to dwindle, Pejšová still mostly found herself on the third pair, the seventh defender slot, or… first-line left wing? Sure, why not, I guess.

Even if it’s uncertain how the Fleet brass view Pejšová, I think she’s their best choice here, especially after losing Keller. She was the youngest player in the PWHL last season, and has has been a staple on Czechia’s blueline internationally for years at this point. It may be a bit of sunk-cost fallacy given her draft position, but I wouldn’t give up on Pejšová just yet.

Final Losses: C Hannah Brandt, LW/RW Jamie Lee Rattray

With a defender protected, I’m going to pick apart Boston’s veteran third line here. Both Brandt and Rattray took a step back from their previous seasons this year, but not enough that I’d leave them off in lieu of options like Shay Maloney or Sophie Shirley.

Rattray’s a fan favourite and a versatile presence in any lineup, while Brandt stepped up late in the season when many of her Fleet teammates didn’t. Either of them would be a valuable addition to an expansion team’s middle-six and leadership group.

Minnesota Frost

Initial Protection List: LW Kendall Coyne Schofield, C Taylor Heise, D Sophie Jaques

The Frost are incredibly lucky to have (at least) a championship before the expansion draft, because wow, they’re in tough here. Captain Coyne Schofield has unrivalled speed and put up the most even strength points in the league this season, so she’s a lock.

Given Heise’s resume, which she only added to with her series winner against Toronto, it feels weird to think of her as the questionable choice here. However, by protecting two forwards, Minnesota is leaving more of their embarrassment of riches on defence up for grabs.

Honestly, it really comes down to personal preference with this trio of blueliners, as all of them have valid claims to the last spot. I’m incredibly high on Jaques, so I’ve gone with her here. She had six more even strength points than the next closest defender in five fewer games, without sacrificing much in her own end to do so. While I anticipate Renata Fast will win the Defender of the Year award this season based on perception around the league, Jaques is significantly more deserving in my eyes.

Initial Losses: D Lee Stecklein, D Claire Thompson

Oof.

Not protecting Stecklein amidst the stretch of play she’s having feels criminal. An ever-reliable presence on the back end who can pull a five-game point streak out of nowhere to drag her team not just into the playoffs but the finals feels like a slam dunk pick, but it speaks to how highly I think of Jaques that Stecklein heads out west here.

Thompson, unfortunately, feels like the odd one out here. The former third overall pick doesn’t have the offensive numbers of Jaques, the defensive capabilities of Stecklein, or the team tenure of either, but she can break a game open like no other. Her early season performance in 2024–25 and record-setting 2022 Olympics are proof of that. Any team would be overjoyed to have Thompson on their blueline, and in this case, the Frost will be devastated to lose her.

Final Protection: C Kelly Pannek

While there are flashier options available for the fourth protection slot, Pannek gets the nod for her alternate captain status and all-around value. Not only is she a centre, she’s among the most prolific face-off-takers in the PWHL, winning 57% of her draws and taking more than anyone not named Marie-Philip Poulin or Susanna Tapani.

Her numbers did dip slightly from last year, but Pannek proved she still has an offensive spark with her dominance at Worlds, a sign of regression to the mean given her under-6% shooting percentage this season.

Final Losses: G Nicole Hensley, RW Grace Zumwinkle

Zumwinkle was Pannek’s closest competition for immunity, but her sophomore slump and a bias for centres over wingers leaves her available for one of the expansion teams to snap up. Zumwinkle rediscovering her Rookie of the Year form would make this one of the steals of the draft. That, however, leaves us with the elephant in the room among skaters: Britta Curl-Salemme.

Do I think that a forced apology less than a month after her selection in the draft for virulently transphobic and otherwise bigoted Twitter activity will be a deal-breaker for either of these teams? Alas, I sure wish I had that kind of faith in hockey culture. Three suspensions in her rookie season alone, though? That might just be enough, certainly enough for me to favour Brooke McQuigge who put up a similar statline with significantly less baggage, but I’m not going for her either.

Hensley has an outside shot at protection given her playoff track record and Maddie Rooney’s contract status, but given that she was the statistically worst qualified goalie in the regular season I have the Frost prioritizing their skaters. Hensley is one of three goalies that I have eventually being selected and I imagine her going to the team that selects two, allowing her to find her groove again in a similar tandem situation that she had in Minnesota.

Montréal Victoire

Initial Protection List: G Ann-Renée Desbiens, C Marie-Philip Poulin, RW Laura Stacey

Probably the most obvious three of any of them, but it comes with the territory of a top-heavy team. Desbiens is why I had to use the word “arguably” when talking about Frankel, Stacey is a shot-volume machine and an incredible skater to boot, and there’s nothing I can really say about Poulin that hasn’t been said already. She’s an all-time great for a reason.

Initial Losses: D Erin Ambrose, D Cayla Barnes

With an obvious initial protection list comes an obvious loss but it doesn’t make it any less of a blow, as Montréal is forced to part with last year’s Defender of the Year in Ambrose.

You could argue that she should have been protected over Stacey, but even discarding her and Poulin’s perception as a package deal, leaving Ambrose available subtracts from a position of strength rather than weakness. That strength, though, takes another hit in the loss of Barnes, as the former first-rounder and US national team regular will be incredibly coveted as a right-shot defender.

Final Protection: LW Jennifer Gardiner

Having Gardiner here instead of the Initial Losses section is my commitment to not assigning any player to either team in particular. Being from Surrey, British Columbia, it’s not a stretch to think that Vancouver would pursue her, especially given that her performance in itself would warrant a selection.

However, in this vacuum I have created, defence is at a greater premium and relying on Gardiner’s production to sustain without Poulin and Stacey is more of a risk than just snagging Barnes. That said, she now remains with Poulin and Stacey in this scenario, so expect another great year from Gardiner in a Victoire jersey.

Final Losses: C Kristin O’Neill, D Anna Wilgren

This is where it gets interesting with Montréal, who have a number of options for the new kids on the block to pull from. Wilgren had a genuine argument as the Victoire’s best blueliner in the second half of the season, and the value of defenders in this league only makes her more enticing. She’s the consistency pick here, since the available forwards are anything but.

While Abby Boreen, Lina Ljungblom, and Maureen Murphy are also possibilities here, O’Neill is the swing I think they’ll take. After carrying Montréal’s offence in the 2024 playoffs, the centre had a dreadful season marked by scoring slumps and penalty trouble. However, her pedigree, her continued success in the face-off dot, and her step up in the postseason once again lead me to believe that O’Neill still has the highest ceiling of the bunch.

New York Sirens

Initial Protection List: C Alex Carpenter, RW/C Sarah Fillier, D Ella Shelton

While maybe not as much as Montréal, New York’s protection list feels pretty straight-forward as well. Carpenter and Fillier are the core of this team, the former possessing one of the most lethal shots in the league and never having taken a penalty in her career, while the latter grabbed a share of the scoring title in her rookie year.

Shelton, meanwhile, still feels underrated despite a Defender of the Year finalist nod a year ago. The first goal-scorer in PWHL history leads all defenders in that category by a country mile, and while the Sirens have a few players on their blueline worth protecting, she’s the priority here.

Initial Losses: LW Jessie Eldridge, D Micah Zandee-Hart

By protecting Shelton, though, New York winds up losing their captain in the expansion draft. Zandee-Hart’s strong offensive start to the season put her back on Team Canada’s radar, and she remained her reliable self even as the points begun to dry up. Like Gardiner, she hails from British Columbia, but either expansion team would be happy to have her.

Eldridge was repeatedly snubbed from Team Canada this year but doesn’t get the same treatment here. She actually had a higher points-per-game rate than Carpenter this season, but the protected centre struggled with injury and Eldridge found herself in the penalty box fairly often as well. With the offence she provides though, it’s worth the trade-off.

Final Protection: D Maja Nylén Persson

The choice for the Sirens’ last slot comes down mainly to two things for me: replaceability, and simple personal preference. I’m a big fan of Nylén Persson’s game, as she’s incredibly dependable defensively while also being a very smart shooter from the point, able to get pucks through crowds for rebounds or for goals of her own.

The first point, though, is better explained when looking at who they’re protecting Nylén Persson in favour of.

Final Losses: C Abby Roque, G Corinne Schroeder

Roque is a polarizing player to be sure, but losing her edge, her face-off ability, and her finesse is a major blow to the Sirens’ top-six. However, with them confirmed to be selecting first overall in the draft, Kristýna Kaltounková or Casey O’Brien can slot seamlessly into her vacated 2C position.

Schroeder, as well, has shown flashes of brilliance demonstrated by her league-leading shutout total, but her inconsistency and the potential of Kayle Osborne backing her up lead me to value the unique aspects of Nylén Persson just a little bit more.

Ottawa Charge

Initial Protection List: LW Emily Clark, G Gwyneth Philips, D Ronja Savolainen

From the start, it was obvious that expansion would cause a conundrum in the Charge crease. Who do they protect, the Team Canada mainstay and foundational signing, or the understudy to Frankel on Team USA and highest drafted goalie last season? The answer, once obvious in favour of the veteran, has shifted as the season went on, and Ottawa’s qualification for the finals marked the complete tipping of the scales. This is Gwyneth Philips’ team now.

Savolainen is, admittedly, a bit of a personal preference pick, but there’s certainly some merit to it. On top of being a physical force in all zones, she’s signed for two years after this one, something no other Charge defender can claim.

Up front, the speedy Clark has been the most consistent piece of Ottawa’s forward core, and now has a series-winner and playoff OT goal under her belt. On a team that generally operates by committee, she’s one of the standouts.

Initial Losses: G Emerance Maschmeyer, C Gabbie Hughes

Much like Ambrose, inevitability doesn’t make it hurt any less. Maschmeyer, beloved by team and fanbase alike, is also undeniably the best goalie on the board, and gets snapped up immediately. The question mark for her lies in how she bounces back from rehabbing her leg injury, but it isn’t enough of a deterrent to pass up her services when healthy.

Of Ottawa’s litany of available forwards, Hughes is the first to go, age and position once again the determining factor for the 25-year-old centre. Consistency can be an issue for her, but when she’s on, she’s on.

Final Protection: D Aneta Tejralová

This is as close as it gets to a coin flip between her and fellow blueliner Ashton Bell, but Tejralová has a few things going for her here. Her deployment suggests a great deal of trust from coach Carla MacLeod, mostly playing alongside their most offensively-minded defender in Jincy Roese and their least experienced in Stephanie Markowski.

MacLeod, of course, also coaches Czechia’s national team which Tejralová captains, and prominently features leading goal scorer and pending free agent Tereza Vanišová. Tejralová sticking around could wind up having a positive impact on Ottawa’s negotiations with her countrywoman.

Final Losses: D Ashton Bell, C/RW Danielle Serdachny

When combing through the remainder of the Charge’s list, there are two distinct categories of players: older and more established, like Brianne Jenner, Jocelyne Larocque or Kateřina Mrázová, and younger with potential to grow. Evidently, I have gone with the latter here.

Bell is the much, much safer bet here. One of the more stabilizing forces on the oft-scattered Ottawa blueline and their only right-handed shot, she could easily be in Tejralová’s spot and I wouldn’t bat an eye. Not to mention her offensive uptick as of late, including a last-gasp jailbreak winner that proved to be the reason the Charge qualified for the playoffs at all.

Serdachny, on the other hand, is the biggest swing on potential I have the expansion front offices making. There’s a lot to like here: her size, her puck control, and her college pedigree that led to her selection at second overall last season.

She hasn’t put it together just yet in her rookie season, recording the fewest points of any first-rounder, including Bilka who missed half the year. However, given Jenner and Larocque seemingly beginning to decline and Mrázová’s health being a massive concern, I think Serdachny is a shot well worth taking.

Toronto Sceptres

Initial Protection List: D Renata Fast, C Blayre Turnbull, LW Daryl Watts

Fast and Watts are the two certainties here. The former logged the most ice time in the league this year while the latter was Toronto’s marquee free agent signing, living up to the hype and more in her first season in blue. The last spot is a bit of a tossup between forwards but I have the Sceptres’ captain maintaining her throne, as Turnbull is one of Toronto’s better even strength producers and a valuable physical presence.

Initial Losses: D Savannah Harmon, C Sarah Nurse

Being glued to her college teammate in Fast served as a bit of familiarity for Harmon, but she still underwent a rough stretch following her initial arrival from Ottawa. The offensively gifted defender began to settle in near the end of the season and into the playoffs, notching her first goal with the team, but she’ll have to go through the process again with another.

While not nearly as brutal as some of the blows other teams have taken to their blueline, the bigger picture around losing Harmon makes it sting just as much. With Hayley Scamurra a free agent, it’s entirely possible that next year the Sceptres will have nothing left to show for using their second overall pick on Larocque in 2023, not to mention another selection in the top half in Victoria Bach.

Nurse was left off for Turnbull mainly due to a rough return from injury and playoff underperformance, as she’s put up just two assists in nine career postseason games (both of them on Emma Maltais goals less than a minute into their respective periods. Even in a piece without Nat’s Stats segments I can’t help myself).

Final Protection: LW/C Julia Gosling

A team not named the New York Sirens keeping their 2024 first-rounder? In this economy?

Gosling was incredibly snakebitten to begin her rookie campaign and, with Toronto’s stacked forward group, found herself in somewhat of a power play specialist role by the end. Her long-awaited breakout finally came as soon as the postseason began, leading the team in goals and notching the game-winner in their only victory. With the Sceptres certain to lose multiple forwards this offseason, giving Gosling the opportunity to ride this wave is the move here.

Final Losses: RW Izzy Daniel, LW/C Emma Maltais

There are a pair of players at every position worth consideration for the Sceptres. Starting from the net out, Kristen Campbell’s .813 playoff save percentage leaves her untouched given all the available options, with Raygan Kirk also getting lost in that shuffle. On the blueline, Allie Munroe was heavily relied upon on the second pair, while Megan Carter’s return from injury coincided with Toronto’s meteoric rise up the standings. However, I’m going with the two forwards in Daniel and Maltais.

Daniel actually started the season higher on the depth chart than Gosling despite being a later draft selection, but the latter’s emergence in the playoffs combined with the former’s last goal coming in December has since flipped that script. Maltais, meanwhile, suffered from a lack of last year’s Natalie Spooner and a lesser role on the power play, seeing a sharp decline in assists and nearly going a calendar year without beating a goaltender.

The potential of both of these forwards, as seen by Daniel’s 2024 Patty Kazmaier Award as the most outstanding player in college hockey, and Maltais’ rebound to point-per-game in a small sample size these playoffs, is something worth betting on. They’ll look to get back on the right foot with a clean slate on the west coast.