Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz prediction, picks, odds for UFC 316

Check out my Salkilld vs. Ashmouz prediction for UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7.

Here’s my Salkilld vs. Ashmouz prediction for tonight.

Qullan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz Odds

Salkilld vs. Ashmouz Pick

Quillian Salkilld is much bigger than Yanal Ashmouz (3″ taller, 6″ reach advantage) at distance and should be able to mix in takedowns whenever he wants to in this fight, driving his substantial favoritism.

Ashmouz is an aggressive striker with immense power, but leaves himself open to reactive takedowns, so I’d expect Salkilld to spend a substantial amount of time in this fight in top position or threatening to win by submission.

I projected the Aussie as a -466 favorite, and don’t show value on either side of the moneyline.

I do project a slight edge on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -104, listed +108) and on Salkilld to win inside the distance (projected +135, listed +165). You can bet the former to +105, and the latter to +150.

However, both fighters are in their physical prime, and neither has shown significant durability or cardio concerns. As a result, I do personally think that Salkilld may win a boring, control-based decision here, so I would either play those violence props small or save them for round-robin tickets.

Salkilld vs. Ashmouz Predictions

Pick:

• Quillan Salkilld wins Inside the Distance (0.15u, +180) at ESPNBet (bet to +150)