Report: Texas State a ‘heavy favorite’ to receive Pac-12 invitation

ESPN’s Pete Thamel and Kyle Bonagura reported on Sunday evening that Texas State is the heavy favorite to become the Pac-12’s ninth member for the 2026-27 athletics season. 

Texas State, a member of the Sun Belt Conference since 2013, has not received a formal invitation from the Pac-12, Thamel and Bonagura reported. 

“The (Pac-12) is still engaged with other schools, per sources, but Texas State has clearly emerged at the forefront of that group,” Thamel and Bonagura wrote.

Texas State’s buyout to leave the Sun Belt increases from $5 million to $10 million on July 1. 

The Pac-12 has eight members signed up for the 2026-27 school year: current members Oregon State and Washington State, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State of the Mountain West and Gonzaga of the West Coast Conference. 

The Pac-12 must add at least one football-playing member prior to 2026 to reach the NCAA’s eight-team minimum to qualify as an FBS conference. Gonzaga does not compete in football. 

Thamel and Bonagura reported that Texas State has remained one of the Pac-12’s top targets for months. The Bobcats were a major topic of discussion during a Pac-12 meeting last week, Thamel and Bonagura reported. 

“With Texas State and the Pac-12, sources said the best way to explain the courtship is that the league is currently exploring making an offer in the upcoming weeks,” the duo wrote. “(Texas State) is expected to have voting support, as the league’s presidents are enamored with a foothold in (Texas) and (Texas State President Kelly) Damphousse’s leadership.”

Texas State is a growing university in San Marcos, Texas, sitting midway between Austin and San Antonio. Texas State’s total enrollment for the 2024-25 academic year was 40,678, surpassing the previous record of 38,849 set in 2016.

A relative newcomer to high-major athletics, Texas State moved up to FBS in 2012 and experienced minimal success until head coach G.J. Kinne’s arrival. The 36-year-old Kinne has guided Texas State to consecutive eight-win seasons in the Sun Belt Conference and agreed to a new seven-year contract worth $2 million annually — one of the richest deals in the Group of 5 — in November.

Texas State reportedly turned down a verbal invitation to join the MWC last fall. 

Here are some other nuggets from Thamel and Bonagura’s reporting:

• The Pac-12’s upcoming media rights deal could be below initial projections from consultants. The deal is expected to be under $10 million per year per school. Non-Boise State MWC schools receive about $3.5 million per year; The American Athletic Conference deal is around $7 million per year for all schools other than Memphis. 

• The Pac-12 initially targeted Memphis and Tulane of the AAC. Tulane had minimal interest, and Memphis balked due to finances. 

• Memphis could emerge as a football-only option for the Pac-12, but that would be unlikely to come to fruition until the 2027-28 athletics season.