Sam Houston State vs. Texas: Pick vs. Spread and Top Storylines

No. 8 Texas will look to secure its third straight victory when it hosts Sam Houston State on Saturday, Sept. 20, after cruising past UTEP last weekend. Meanwhile, the Bearkats are still searching for their first win of the season, sitting at 0-3 with each loss coming by double digits.

Saturday’s non-conference matchup is set for an 8 p.m. ET kickoff in Austin, with coverage available on ESPN+ and SEC Network+. Texas enters the matchup as 39.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 51.5 total points. Here are two key players to watch in this game, followed by the top storylines for each team, and a prediction from Heartland College Sports.

Two Key Players To Watch

Parker Livingstone (WR, Texas)

Wide receiver Parker Livingstone broke out in Texas’ second game of the season against San José State, recording four catches for 128 yards and two touchdowns. While the Longhorns’ passing attack has shown inconsistency, a matchup with a Sam Houston defense that surrenders over 38 points per game could be the chance to turn things around. Livingstone’s ability to stretch the field might be exactly what Texas needs to ignite its offense.

Elijah Green (RB, Sam Houston)

In addition to contributing 76 yards on the ground, running back Elijah Green has also been the team’s leading receiver with 11 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. His versatility has been one of the bright spots for Sam Houston’s offense, giving the Bearkats a dependable weapon in both phases. If Sam Houston hopes to stay competitive against Texas, Green’s ability to create mismatches out of the backfield will be key.

Two Key Storylines

Is This the Week Archie Manning Settles In?

Archie Manning entered the season carrying heavy expectations, but so far, he’s struggled to find consistency, completing just 55.3% of his passes. Even against a lesser opponent in UTEP last week, he went 11-of-25 for only 114 yards. If he can’t turn things around this weekend, serious questions could begin to surface about the sophomore quarterback. A strong performance against Sam Houston could be exactly what he needs to quiet the noise and regain momentum.

A Tall Task Against a Top-10 Team

Facing No. 8 Texas in Austin is a challenge for any program, especially for a team still searching for its identity and first win in 2025. For Sam Houston, simply keeping the game competitive would count as a small but meaningful victory. The Bearkats will need to rely on playmakers like Green to generate offense and hope their defense can limit explosive plays against the Longhorns’ talented roster. More than anything, this matchup provides an opportunity for Sam Houston to measure itself against one of the nation’s elite programs and build confidence heading into conference play.

Prediction: Texas 56, Sam Houston 7

Texas should have little trouble handling Sam Houston on Saturday, as the Longhorns’ talent and depth far outweigh what the Bearkats can bring to Austin. Manning may still be searching for consistency, but facing a defense that’s giving up over 38 points per game provides a perfect opportunity to settle in. Expect Texas to establish the run early, then let Manning open things up against an overmatched secondary. A convincing win would give the Longhorns momentum before traveling on the road next weekend to take on the Florida Gators.