SP+ Predicts BYU Football vs Stanford

Originally posted on BYU Cougars on SI
By Casey Lundquist | Last updated Sep 2, 2025 1:30 PM ET

On Saturday night, BYU will host Stanford under the lights in Lavell Edwards Stadium. SP+, a predictive metric invented by ESPN's Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-Stanford.

SP+ gives BYU a 94% chance to win with an expected final score of 39-14. SP+ is higher on BYU's chances than the oddsmakers who favor BYU by 18.5. SP+ is also higher on BYU than FPI which gives BYU an 89.2% chance to win.

BYU is coming off a dominant 69-0 win over FCS foe Portland State. While Portland State is a bad football team, BYU's dominance was notable. The Cougars took a 49-0 lead into halftime and never allowed Portland State to even threaten to score (besides a fumble on a punt return in BYU territory).

Stanford is coming off a bye. The Cardinal are 0-1 after losing to Hawaii in week zero - Hawaii hit a game-winning field goal as time expired on their way to a 23-20 win.

Stanford will be looking for answers on offense, particularly in the passing game. Stanford senior quarterback Ben Gulbranson was 15/30 for 109 yards and 1 interception. Gulbranson was, frankly, bad against Hawaii. He missed multiple open receivers and struggled to sustain drives. It remains to be seen if Stanford will stick with him at quarterback or go with someone else on the roster.

The storyline of this game will be the Bachmeier family. BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier transferred from Stanford in May after the Cardinal fired head coach Troy Taylor. Bear's older brother Tiger followed him to BYU after spending the first two years of his college football career at Stanford. Had he not transferred to BYU, Bear likely would have been the starter for Stanford.

Instead, Bear will start for BYU and the first FBS opponent he will face will be his former team.

Stanford will look to establish a physical rushing attack against a BYU defense that was dominant against the run in week one. The Cougars held Portland State to -3 rushing yards on 22 attempts. Stanford will need to sustain long drives on the ground to stay in this game.