Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Kolin Wilson (26) runs with the ball against the Alcorn State Braves during the second half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Stats, projections heavily favor Mississippi State against Northern Illinois

Originally posted on Mississippi State Bulldogs on SI
By Taylor Hodges | Last updated Sep 18, 2025 1:00 PM ET

A serious debate could start this weekend if Mississippi State beats Northern Illinois, like its projected to do.

Should the Bulldogs be ranked?

A 4-0 SEC team with a home win against the No. 12 team in the nation, plus a top 15 strength of record ranking? The Bulldogs are already in the top five of teams receiving votes.

So, yes, that’s going to be a debate if Mississippi State wins this Saturday.

But the possibility of the Huskies coming into Davis Wade Stadium and leaving with a win is realistic, even if almost all projections have the Bulldogs winning.

In terms of Football Power Index rankings, Mississippi State (42nd) is ranked nearly 50 spots ahead of Northern Illinois (95th) and is ranked No. 15 in SOR.

(Note: SOR is defined as the chance of an average top 25 team would the team’s record, or better given the schedule.)

In fact, Southern Miss currently ranks higher in both FPI (94) and SOR (74).

ESPN’s matchup predictor also gives the Bulldogs an 87.9 percent chance of winning Saturday, as does Bill Connelly’s SP+ Projections.

Current SP+ rankings if based solely on 2025:

1 Texas Tech
2 Oregon
3 Penn State
4 BYU
5 Indiana
6 USC
7 Washington
8 Utah
9 Missouri
10 TCU
11 OU
12 Florida St
13 Illinois
14 Nebraska
15 Miss St

Is this the CFB world in which I want to live? I can't say no!
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 16, 2025

If all the projections come true, Mississippi State will host Tennessee with a 4-0 record. However, this weekend might be the last time mathematical, statistical projections will favor the Bulldogs.

Looking at the ESPN College Football Power Index rankings of only SEC teams, Mississippi State is last. But at least they’re not alone with Kentucky have a matching FPI.

What should sound promising is the FPI projections give the Bulldogs a 55 percent chance to reach six wins and go bowling. That would require, assuming a Mississippi State win on Saturday, two wins against SEC teams.

We’ve covered which SEC teams are most likely to fall to the Bulldogs, but now that we’ve seen how good (or not) certain teams are, it might be time to revisit that.

For now, here’s how the SEC teams are ranked, according to FPI.

ESPN FPI SEC Teams Rankings

Alabama (22)
Georgia (21.5)
Texas (19.8)
Ole Miss (18.8)
Tennessee (18.6)
Missouri (16.5)
Oklahoma (16.5)
Texas A&M (15.9)
LSU (14.3)
Auburn (14)
Vanderbilt (13.9)
Arkansas (13.1)
Florida (10.2)
South Carolina (7.8)
Kentucky (6.8) and Mississippi State (6.8)

(Note: The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.)

This article first appeared on Mississippi State Bulldogs on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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