Feb 17, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard J'vonne Hadley (1) looks to move the ball past SMU Mustangs forward Corey Washington (3) during the second half at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. SMU

Originally posted on Louisville Cardinals on SI
By Matthew McGavic | Last updated Mar 10, 2026 9:16 PM ET

Louisville (22-9, 11-7 ACC) is set to face SMU (20-12. 8-10 ACC) on Wednesday, Mar. 11 at 2:30 p.m. EST at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. in the ACC Tournament second round. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Mustangs:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	SMU	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	24th/24th
SOS	48th	45th
SOR	47th	25th
NET	39th	13th
WAB	48th	21st
RPI	41st	27th
BPI	43rd	11th
KenPom	42nd	14th
Torvik	42nd	14th
EvanMiya	43rd	18th

Team Leaders

	SMU	Louisville
Points	Boopie Miller (19.5)	Ryan Conwell (18.7)
Rebounds	Samet Yigitoglu (7.9)	Sananda Fru (6.2)
Assists	Boopie Miller (6.5)	Mikel Brown Jr. (4.7)
Steals	B.J. Edwards (2.3)	Mikel Brown Jr. (1.2)
Blocks	Samet Yigitoglu (1.3)	Sananda Fru (1.4)

Scoring

	SMU	Louisville
Points Per Game	85.0	85.9
Field Goal %	49.2	47.2
FGM/FGA Per Game	31.0/63.0	29.0/61.5
Three Point %	37.6	36.3
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	8.4/22.4	11.9/32.7
Free Throw %	74.3	77.1
FTM/FTA Per Game	14.7/19.7	15.9/20.6

Rebounding

	SMU	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	37.8	38.7
Off. Reb. Per Game	12.3	11.5
Def. Reb. Per Game	25.5	27.3
Rebound Margin	3.7	4.1

Defense

	SMU	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	78.1	72.5
Opp. FG%	43.5	42.2
Opp. 3PT%	34.2	32.6
Steals Per Game	7.2	7.0
Blocks Per Game	3.6	3.3
Turnovers Forced Per Game	12.3	11.9

Ball Handling

	SMU	Louisville
Assists Per Game	17.2	17.4
Turnovers Per Game	11.2	11.6
Turnover Margin	1.1	0.3
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.53	1.50

Predictions

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 70 percent chance to take down the Mustangs, with a projected final score of 87-81 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +26.14 (14th overall), whereas SMU has an adjusted efficiency margin of +18.10 (42nd overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 72 percent chance to take down the Ponies, with a projected final score of 88-81 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9386 (14th overall), whereas SMU has a "Barthag" of .8551 (42nd overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 89, SMU 85.

This article first appeared on Louisville Cardinals on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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