Well, it was a crazy Friday, I mean Thursday night. The final series of the regular season is upon us, and outside of West Virginia clinching a regular-season championship, the rest of the standings are still in disarray.
The TCU Horned Frogs won their game in a thrilling nine-run ninth inning to keep them in place with Kansas and Arizona State. The question remains, where will they finish? Where will others in the conference finish as well? Who will be the top four teams that get a bye in the first round of the conference tournament? Well, it's time to break it all down.
The Horned Frogs can finish as high as second place or as low as fifth. Arizona State, Kansas, and TCU are all tied in second place with 18 conference wins, but the Sun Devils hold the tie-breaker after winning the series 2-1 against both teams. The Frogs hold the tie-breaker over the Jayhawks after they swept them at Lupton this season.
However, if the Frogs were to drop both of the final games of the season, while Arizona and Kansas State were to win their final two games, all three teams would finish with 19 wins, and that's when things could get messy.
Arizona holds the tie-breaker over the Frogs after winning the series 2-1. Kansas State has not played either team in a CONFERENCE SERIES this season, but did play TCU (and won) in the Amegy Classic at Globe Life Stadium at the beginning of the year. The Frogs have the better win percentage over the highest-ranked opponent (Kansas). So, now that the prerequisites are out of the way, let's dive into the details.
TCU would need to win at least one more game and finish with a better record than Arizona State. Kansas and TCU can finish with the same record, as the Frogs hold the tie-breaker.
If TCU and Arizona State finish with the same record, but both teams have more wins than Kansas, the Frogs finish third due to losing the series against the Sun Devils at the beginning of the season.
Win one more game, but finish with fewer wins than ASU and KU. If the Frogs go 1-1 in the final two games, and the Sun Devils and Jayhawks go 2-0, they would finish with the last bye.
Lose both of the season's final games, while Arizona wins the season's final two games and Kansas wins at least one game. The Wildcats hold the tie-breaker over the Frogs.
Essentially, TCU needs to win at least one of its final two games to secure a bye in the first round of the Big 12 tournament; everything after that will only affect seeding.
For other teams around the conference, there will still be fighting going on. Cincinnati and Kansas State are playing a three-game series against each other, with only one game separating them in the standings. A Cincy series sweep would put them in front of K-State.
BYU, UCF, and Utah are in the bottom three spots in the standings, with the bottom two teams missing the tournament next weekend. The Utes need to win the final two games against TCU, and they hope that both BYU and UCF drop the last two games to sneak in. BYU can clinch a spot in the tournament with a win today, but if they finish with the same record as UCF OR Utah, they will finish below the cut line. UCF can finish with the same record as BYU or Utah, as they hold the tie-breakers over both teams (won H2H against BYU and have a better win percentage against K-State than Utah).
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