Texas vs. Oklahoma State score prediction for Big 12 title game by expert model

Everything is on the line this week in Arlington, Tex., as the Big 12 Championship Game kicks off on Saturday, one that is loaded not just with history for the conference, but in the short-term, too, with possible College Football Playoff implications. That's if Texas can get the best of challenger Oklahoma State. A win over the Cowboys puts the Longhorns in position to sneak into the final four at one loss overall and with a head-to-head win over Alabama the selection committee loves.

What can we make of the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of the Big 12 Championship Game.

Texas vs. Oklahoma State prediction

The simulations strongly favor the Longhorns to take care of business here.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Oklahoma State by a projected score of 37 to 21 and to win the game by an expected 16.1 points to win the Big 12 championship.

The model gives the Longhorns an 82 percent chance of victory outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 374-351-14 (51.6%) in its picks against the spread after going 38-26-1 (59.2%) last week, its second-best performance of the season to date.

Point spread

Texas is a 15.5 point favorite against Oklahoma State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total for 54.5 points in the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Texas at -700 and for Oklahoma State at +500.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Texas -15.5
• Longhorns to win -700
• Bet over 54.5 points

Computer prediction

Most other analytic tools also like the Longhorns to finish as champs.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index favors the Longhorns to win the game in 88.1 percent of simulations, and for the Cowboys to come out ahead in the remaining 11.9 percent of sims.

The computer favors Texas to defeat Oklahoma State by an expected 16 points, also enough to cover the line on the SI book.