The Big 12’s Week 1 Could Not Be Off to a Worst Start

Originally posted on Heartland College Sports
By Pete Mundo | Last updated Aug 30, 2025 10:56 AM ET

As I write this on a Saturday morning of Week 1 of the college football season, I try not to overreact. But we’re college football fans, that’s almost impossible, right? I said on the Heartland College Sports Podcast and YouTube channel this week that anything worse than 13-3 would be a disappointment for the Big 12. As I write this, the Big 12 has lost two games, is 5-2 overall, and we haven’t kicked off any of the Saturday action yet. On Friday night, Baylor put up a stinker against Auburn, while Colorado came up short against Georgia Tech.

But also, both teams failed to cover the spread. That puts the Big 12 at 3-4 against the spread in Week 1 through their first seven games.

On Thursday night, UCF failed to cover the 20-point spread against Jacksonville State in a 17-10 win, Oklahoma State covered, barely, vs. UT Martin (19.5 points) by winning 27-7, Houston covered vs. Stephen F. Austin (22.5) in a 27-0 victory, and Cincinnati was able to cover against Nebraska (6.5-point underdog) in a 20-17 loss.

So a 3-1 start wasn’t bad, but then Friday happened when the Big 12 put up a goose egg and went 0-3 with Baylor failing to cover vs. Auburn (1.5 points) in a 38-24 loss, Colorado missing vs. Georgia Tech (4.5 points) losing 27-20 and then Kansas rolling Wagner 46-7, but not covering the massive 45-point spread.

Winless vs. Power 4 … So Far

So the league is now 3-4 to start Week 1 against the spread, but it’s not just that, it’s also that the league has gone 0-3 vs. its Power 4 opponents thus far. Now, in fairness, each of the Big 12 teams were underdogs in their games: Cincinnati, Baylor and Colorado. Also, Cincinnati and Colorado are not projected to be Big 12 contenders this season.

Saturday’s Big 12 slate only includes one Power 4 game: Utah vs. UCLA, where the Utes are a 6-point favorite. That game is critical for the Big 12. And then on Monday, TCU is a 3.5-point favorite over UNC. Since the Big 12 failed to pull an upset against any of their Power 4 opponents, the favorites need to hold serve in the days ahead.

And of course, this probably goes unspoken, but it’s Week 1, so I’ll say it: The Big 12 needs to avoid a shockingly disappointing upset. Iowa State vs. South Dakota and Kansas State vs. North Dakota could be tricky since these teams are seven days removed from playing a game in another country. Arizona vs. Hawaii is probably a safe one for the Wildcats, but I do think that the Rainbow Warriors can cover this spread (17.5).

Either way, as I sit here on a Saturday morning, I feel more anxiety than I wanted to feel as we get set for the official kick off of the college football season. I hope that anxiety has subsided by about 1:00 a.m. CT tonight.

This article first appeared on Heartland College Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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