The Case for Kings Making the Right Decision on Zach LaVine

That is some elite company, including perennial All-Stars and potential faces of the NBA (and a couple of former Kings point guards. Sigh.). 

LaVine’s contract has been a negative asset for years. Chicago unsuccessfully tried to trade LaVine despite very productive seasons and a skillset that should theoretically be in demand. The contract was simply a non-starter.

Enter the “market correction extension.”

Adjusting LaVine’s salary can quickly change leaguewide perception. A recent extreme example of this is Bradley Beal. There was little to no trade interest when Beal was a $50M player (there were other issues too, but bear with me). 

Once Beal was waived and stretched, he had immediate interest at a more palatable value. The Clippers signed Beal at a fraction of the NTMLE, a steal for a player that clearly has good basketball left in him. 

Beal is not a perfect comparison, but he shows the correlation between a player’s salary and league perception of the player and the corresponding desire to trade for that player. 

Even extending to a figure similar to CJ McCollum’s (adjusted figures in our first analysis of this extension) would represent a significant pay cut. McCollum went from 26.32% of the cap in the last year of his previous contract to 23.71% in the first year of the extension. Every percentage of breathing room matters in the Apron era. 

Here is where LaVine’s 26-27 salary would rank if he declined his PO and extended on the McCollum value: 

Perception varies widely here, but it is undeniably closer to LaVine’s true value than his option salary. Importantly, Bane, Green, and Holiday have all been traded with salaries in this range this summer. McCollum himself was traded this summer in the second year of his extension, as well. These are clearly movable figures in the right deals. 

It would be a huge win if Sacramento could mimic McCollum’s exact extension, as it is just two years long and decreases in value, down to just 19.83% of the salary cap in year two. This value once again keeps him with reasonable company: 

This would allow Sacramento to walk the line of extending both Keegan Murray and Keon Ellis to market value extensions while remaining under the luxury tax. 

Why Extending Makes Sense for LaVine

LaVine and his representatives will need to think long and hard about whether there will be better options if he were to hit unrestricted free agency (UFA). The free agent market was frigid this summer, with only six players signing for values at or above the NTMLE. Only one player signed for a FYS above the extension projected here. 

Last offseason was more active, with five players signing with a FYS over 25% of the cap and 14 signing at or above the NTMLE. Those signing above 25% include LeBron James, Paul George (the only one to change teams), Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and James Harden. 

Anunoby aside (still unclear why the Knicks paid him that much), James, George, and Harden are universally seen as better players than LaVine. Siakam signed after (1) the Pacers traded for him, knowing they were going to have to pay to keep him in free agency, and (2) one of the best stretches of his career, leading the Pacers to a surprise Conference Finals appearance. It is not exactly going out on a limb to say those circumstances are quite different from what LaVine’s will be heading into UFA. 

Also, cap space teams are few and far between nowadays. There was exactly one team with space this summer. Paul George is the only example of a notable free agent (>23% of the cap) switching teams over the last two offseasons. 

While teams may be gearing up to go star hunting in a year or two, is LaVine the prize they are opening space up for? Possibly, but it would be a stretch to say it is likely. With fewer and fewer big names hitting free agency, and with even fewer teams equipped with cap space to sign big names, LaVine and his camp should be looking into locking something in now. 

It takes some mental gymnastics to see the merits of this. In the short term, this would probably lead to Sacramento’s new regime being a New Orleans-esque punchline for the rest of the summer, appearing as merely another chapter in Kangz lore that gets canned in 18 months. 

However, the short-term pain would allow Sacramento long-term benefits, chief among them being the ability to extend Murray and Ellis (both of whom should be long-term pieces alongside Nique Clifford) at market value while remaining under the luxury tax. 

You have to play the hand you are dealt, even when it is a bad hand. This front office clearly inherited a bad hand. It will take some creativity along these lines to right the ship.