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These Two Phillies Stars Have Already Outperformed Preseason Projections

Originally posted on Philadelphia Phillies on SI
By Brad Wakai | Last updated Aug 23, 2025 5:51 PM ET

Despite the rollercoaster nature that has been this Philadelphia Phillies season at times, there's no doubt that they have been successful as they stare down a second straight NL East title.

For that to happen, the Phillies will have to close strong, starting with the remaining two games against the Washington Nationals after they shockingly dropped the first due to a Jhoan Duran blown save.

But Philadelphia has gotten to this point on the strength of their stars, powered by the slugging of Kyle Schwarber, the resurgent year of Trea Turner, the all-around game of Bryce Harper and the elite performance of the starting staff.

When it comes to Schwarber, it should be no surprise that he has outperformed his preseason expectations. However, another player on this roster has done so, too, with Jesus Luzardo also turning in a performance better than anticipated.

Kyle Schwarber Blows Past Preseason Projections

The slugger has done some remarkable things since coming to Philadelphia, but this season might be his best one yet with a slash line of .252/.373/.581 to go along with an NL-leading 45 home runs and a major league-leading 109 RBI.

Per Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru of MLB.com, the 4.2 fWAR and .957 OPS he has entering play on Saturday has already surpassed the ZIPS projection of the 2.2 fWAR and .803 OPS he was assigned before the 2025 campaign got underway.

Projections weren't kind to Schwarber despite what he's done the past few years, but he has managed to put together a season where he's hitting for both average and power, which can be a rarity in today's era of baseball.

"He's finally managed to combine the two this year, hitting .249 with 45 home runs, two short of his career high, with over a month left in the regular season -- all quite far from the middle ground .220, 36-homer season recent history suggested was more likely," wrote Sepe-Chepuru.

Jesus Luzardo Has Been Better Than Advertised

At the start of the year, the left-hander put himself right into the NL Cy Young conversation, dominating opposing lineups after dealing with a back injury that cut his 2024 season short. But he ran into some issues at different times of the year, which soured the perception of Luzardo for many in the fanbase.

However, when stepping back and looking at what he was projected to do coming into the season, he has been much better than anticipated in terms of ZIPS projections, with his current fWAR of 4.2 being two wins above the 2.2 fWAR he was expected to have.

While his ERA is 4.10 through 26 starts and his ERA+ is just eight points above the league average, that largely is due to a rough stretch where he gave up 20 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings during back-to-back games.

With Zack Wheeler now out for the year, the Phillies are going to need Luzardo to find his early-season form, something he has been doing as of late.