Thursday’s Best FanDuel Bets: Patriots-Steelers, Ducks-Blackhawks, Pelicans-Lakers

Yesterday we almost had our second perfect day of the week but ended up going 2-1 with the Under 156.5 in Duquesne/Marshall going over by 1 point. The closing line value on the game was 158.5, so if you got it there you were a winner. I really blame Marshall’s coach for that, he had The Herd begin fouling the Dukes with under 2 minutes in a game that was already pretty much determined. But we move on at 33-28 for the season, a 54%-win percentage.

And speaking of closing line value, that is something I would like to discuss as most people not familiar with sports betting or just starting out don’t understand what that is. Closing line value (CLV) is a measure of the value of a bet at the time it is placed compared to the closing odds. As in Duquesne/Marshall in regard to the total, the closing line value screwed us since it jumped 2 points from when the article was written to the time the game started.

Closing line value can also decrease spreads, totals and money lines as much as it can increase them. As with the Patriots/Steelers game tonight, this game opened with an O/U of 41. It is now all the way down to 30 and could dip even lower. Sometimes getting the line earlier can help, sometimes it can hurt you. Always be aware of the closing line value.

Now onto the winning picks!

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) O/U 30 8:15 PM on Amazon Prime

We benefited for years seeing Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger duel it out when these two teams faced off. Fans were spoiled by the Football Gods. Now we get Bailey Zappe and Mitch Trubisky facing off in this matchup. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

The NFL is probably kicking themselves for scheduling these two in primetime. Now both on backup quarterbacks, one by choice and one by injury, we may see some of the worst offensive football we have ever seen in the NFL. It will be like an Iowa spring scrimmage.

It is really hard to give out any touchdown props for this game because I am not sure if either side will score a touchdown on offense. There is value on both the Patriots Defense (+1000) and Steelers Defense (+650) to score. Might not be the night to go hog wild on those props. I would target Ezekiel Elliott, Jaylen Warren and Trubisky rushing totals tonight and take those overs.

As for the game itself, I am holding my nose and taking the Under in what will be a tough game to sit through. Just for reference, my main pick in Steeler games are 3-0.