Sep 27, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley talks with players during the first half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

USC Trojans' National Championship Odds Shift Dramatically

Originally posted on USC Trojans on SI
By Gabriel Duarte | Last updated Oct 2, 2025 12:30 PM ET

After sustaining their first loss of the season last week, the USC Trojans took a bit hit to their College Football Playoff championship odds. Once thought as a serious contender for winning a national title, the Trojans will be on the outside looking in coming out of their bye week.

USC will take on Michigan at home next week in a crucial must-win game to keep their national championship hopes alive.

USC's Odds Dropping

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USC's national championship odds currently sit at +7500 according to ESPN BET. They sit with the same odds as Florida State and Auburn. The Trojans have the sixth-highest odds among Big Ten teams to win the national title.

Despite dropping in odds following their loss, USC still has a legitmate chance of making the CFP. They will need to pull off an upset or two along the way, but the oddsmakers still like the Trojans to stay in the title hunt.

Interestingly enough, the Trojans' next opponent in Michigan have the fifth-highest odds among Big Ten teams at +5000.

Path To College Football Playoff

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Since USC dropped a surprise game to Illinois, they will need to nearly win out. The Trojans have to take care of business vs. Michigan, who is not a pushover. The following week after that, USC will travel to Notre Dame in another ranked battle.

If the Trojans are able to defeat the Wolverines and Fighting Irish, they have to follow those games up with a road date vs. Nebraska

That's three games right out of the bye week for USC that are must win, but not easy to win. One of the biggest games left on their schedule is a Nov. 22 date vs. Oregon. With how good the Ducks have been playing, it is hard to see the Trojans pulling that win out on the road.

If USC wants to get this season back on track, a 10-2 record will get them into serious consideration for a spot in the CFP. The wins won't be easy to come by, but if they want to make program history, they will need to roll their sleeves up and get to work.

Conference Championship Odds

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Not only did the Trojans' national championship odds isnk following their first loss of the year, but their odds of winning the Big Ten did as well. ESPN BET has USC with the sixth-highest odds of winning the conference at +3500.

Luckily for the Trojans, one of their toughest games left on the schedule is a non-conference battle with Notre Dame. Even if they drop that game, it won't effect their Big Ten title chances. Oregon, Michigan, and Nebraska will challenge the Trojans, but similarly to their hopes of making a CFP, it is still possible.