Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's Prediction, Preview & Odds: NCAA Tournament First Round

Originally posted on College Football News
By Pete Fiutak | Last updated Mar 20, 2025 12:54 AM ET

You want a big, giant, huge game when it comes to college basketball talking points and narratives this is as interesting as it gets.

Saint Mary’s was fantastic all season long, winning the West Coast Conference regular season title and earning the respect of all the analytic ranking systems. Beating an SEC team would matter.

Vanderbilt might not be Auburn, or Florida, or Alabama this season, but finishing ninth in the SEC this season is an accomplishments. It probably should’ve been a bubble team losing its last three games and seven of its last 11, but it got in easily.

The winner will almost certainly get Alabama in the next round. Will it be an SEC lovefest, or can Saint Mary’s potentially make an even bigger statement?

Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's Game Preview

Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's How To Watch

Date: Friday, March 21
Venue: Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH
Time: 3:15 pm ET
TV: truTV
Teams: (10) Vanderbilt (20-12), (7) Saint Mary's (28-5)
Region: East
NCAA Tournament Schedule, Predictions, Previews

Why Vanderbilt Will Win

The Commodores are deep, they can shoot, and they’re good on the free throw line.

To hang with the Gaels there can’t be a slew of wasted possessions. Every turnover matters in what’s almost always a grinding battle. Vanderbilt has its flaws, but it doesn’t give the ball away and can punch its weight in half court sets.

Open it up just a little bit, and that takes Saint Mary’s out of its comfort zone. However …

Why Saint Mary's Will Win

Vanderbilt has a few massive problems in this matchup. It doesn’t rebound all that well, and its defense isn’t anything great.

It usually has to win games by - forgive how this sounds, but you know what I mean - outscoring the other side. It wasn’t to play an 84-81 game, not a 65-62 slog.

The team is 1-8 when it scores fewer than 73 points. It isn’t anything pretty, but Saint Mary’s manages to keep every game low scoring.

The Gaels allowed more than 73 just five times this season. Three times it gave up 74, twice it allowed 75, and it won four of them.

Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's: Who Will Win?

There won’t be nearly enough second chance points for the Commodores.

There’s nothing aesthetically pleasing about Saint Mary’s games, but this bunch knows exactly what it’s doing. It’s Achilles’ heel is on the free throw line, but it’ll get by on its interior defense and overall size.

(BTW, as a fan, the Alabama No. 1 offense in America vs the Saint Mary’s D in the second round would be a thing.)

Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's Prediction, Betting Lines

Prediction: Saint Mary’s 71, Vanderbilt 65
Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's Betting Lines
BetMGM Line: Saint Mary’s -4.5, o/u: 135.5
DraftKings Line: Saint Mary’s -4.5, o/u: 135.5
FanDuel Line: Saint Mary’s -4.5, o/u: 135.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
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