Virginia Football: What Does ESPN's FPI Say About The Matchup Against Coastal Carolina?

Virginia is favored in this game, not just by the oddsmakers, but by multiple analytical systems as well. One of them is ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) and FPI is giving Virginia a 76% chance to win the game.

In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

SP+ favors Virginia as well

Bill Connelly's SP+ projections are predicting a victory from the Cavaliers, but only by eight points, not double digits. SP+ is giving UVA a 69% chance to win the game.

What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

Can UVA surpass expectations?

Despite the fact that this team was picked to finish 14th in the ACC, head coach Tony Elliott believes that his team is ready to compete this season:

"There's a lot of excitement surrounding this year's team. I absolutely love being around our young men. Another huge thank you to our administration, Dr. Williams, our donor base and staff for contributing the resources, the time and the effort to assemble the deepest and most complete roster that we've had in four seasons.

Speaking of the staff, we're one of only six Power Four programs to return our entire staff. This off-season we added 54 new players. 32 of those through the transfer portal and 22 of those being high school signees. I'd also like to add that our staff has gone about building to this point, and we've done it the right way. Three years ago on the front end we made a decision to honor the commitments of the young men that were committed to the previous staff. We also decided to honor the commitments of the young men that were currently on the roster, to embrace them and work alongside them until graduation.

Our current roster is very balanced. 46 percent of our players are upperclassmen and 54 percent are underclassmen. With the addition of the players that we added in the transfer portal, we added 850 games of college football experience.

We held a lead in nine of our 12 games last season, and we're hopeful that the added depth and experience will help us in working towards closing out games in which we have a lead.

As a staff and administration, we're hard at work building a competitive roster. The scholar athletes are hard at work on the grounds in the classroom. In the spring we set a football record with a 3.23 team GPA, and as a program we've been above a 3.0 GPA five of the seven semesters we've been on the grounds. In our seven semesters, we've averaged 77 members of our team accessing a 3.0 or Above Club each semester. This season we have seven home games, four of which are within the first five weeks, and our staff and players are excited to see our outstanding fan base pack Scott Stadium and create an environment that makes it the hardest for opposing teams to play in."

The Cavaliers have the experience and the schedule to make a run at the postseason for the first time since 2019. Let's see how this team responds to the doubt.

Virginia opens their season on Saturday against Coastal Carolina.