Virginia Tech Men's Basketball: How Many Wins Will It Take for the Hokies to Go Dancing in March?

Let's start with some statistics that outline how the Hokies can make the cut for the NCAA Tournament. In each of the last 25 years, four ACC teams or more have qualified for the 68-team March Madness field. In 2017 and 2018, the conference sent nine squads to the NCAA Tournament. While seeing nine make the field again isn't realistic in today's landscape with the SEC, Big 10 and Big 12 asserting themselves in the men's basketball scene, seeing five or six squads qualify for the Big Dance is a sensible proposition.

In current head coach Mike Young's tenure, Tech has qualified for the NCAA Tournament on three occasions (2018-2019, 2020-2021, 2021-22), the latter of which came about because of an ACC Tournament championship victory.

In the other two years, the Hokies qualified via an at-large bid, which is almost assuredly what they will have to do to crack the Big Dance this season. Tech has finished in the top five of the ACC (2018-19, 2020-2021) twice under Young. The majority of the top-five seeds in the ACC during Young's tenure have sported an in-conference record of 13-7 or higher. The one outlier was 2023-2024, where Pittsburgh (12-8) and Wake Forest (11-9) cracked the top-five. Since the ACC has now slashed its slate of conference games from 20 down to 18 to allow for more strong out-of-conference matchups, the goalpost shifts slightly down to 12 wins as an approximate winning percentage.

So for the Hokies to entertain any thoughts of dancing, there's two methods. No. 1 is to win the ACC Tournament, guaranteeing a bid to the Big Dance. For that to happen, Tech needs to survive the gauntlet and avoid being in the bottom three of the ACC come mid-March. The latter is realistic; the former will take a lot to go right. Option No. 2 is to compile 12 or more in-conference wins; it is important to note as a ceveat that winning the majority of out-of-conference events, particularly the ones against SEC teams, can make up for a potentially subpar conference slate. For example, if the Hokies go 11-7 in-conference but tally multiple wins against solid NCAA-caliber SEC foes, then there's a possibility for them to dance in March.

Though the likelihood of returning to March Madness remains uncertain for Tech, the formula for earning a spot in the 68-team field is relatively straightforward: win at least 12 ACC games, handle business in non-conference play, and make a solid impression in the ACC Tournament.

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