What could Michigan football's punishment be from NCAA for sign-stealing saga?

In that, all signs (pun intended) point to the NCAA wrapping up this investigation and deciding on what penalties to levy against Michigan football. For many who follow college football, it will be a relief to see this saga come to an end as events related to Connor Stalions and the Wolverines have remained steady in the news cycle since the middle of the 2023 fall season during Michigan's National Championship run.

That being said, many are eager for the results and what it will mean for one of college football's most storied programs moving forward and whether or not there will be any implications with past accomplishments.

Let's break down the hottest questions leading up to the NCAA's decision and evaluate what the most likely punishments will be for Sherrone Moore's program,.

Will Michigan have any wins vacated spanning from 2021-23?

Prediction: Not happening

As time has worn on, and even after the NCAA officially cited Michigan for 11 violations (six of which were deemed of the Level I variety) in August of 2024, there have been no credible reports suggesting the Wolverines' past accomplishments are in any sort of danger. That includes all wins spanning from 2021-23, Big Ten titles and the 2023 National Championship. In fact, the only people who have seemed to have suggested that those accomplishments could be in danger have seemed to come from online trolls of rival fan bases.

According to words from Thamel on the College Gameday Podcast in August of 2024, he is completely confident the Wolverines will not have to vacate any wins.

"So the vacating thing I can say with full throated confidence,” Thamel said. “They take away wins when it  involves players who aren’t eligible. And there are no players implicated in here directly by name or anything. Looking back there will be nothing. The actual likelihood of that happening considering Tennessee, considering the political climate, considering the NCAA has basically come out and said, ‘We don’t want to punish them.’

The Tennessee case that Thamel referenced when the Volunteers received an $8 million fine, vacated wins from the 2019-20 season and a six-year show-cause penalty for former head coach Jeremy Pruitt, included a situation where the NCAA deemed 16 former Tennessee players were ineligible due to the 2019 and 2020 seasons due them receiving impermissible benefits. Therefore, due to having players on the field who were deemed ineligible, the NCAA chose the route of vacating wins from the program.

As Thamel pointed out in the podcast, the wiping away of wins from the NCAA usually comes when there are ineligible players involved. In this instance for Michigan football, no players have been deemed ineligible, making it extremely unlikely the NCAA would go that route in punishing the Wolverines.

Will Michigan receive a future postseason ban?

Prediction: Unlikely

In the aforementioned quote from Thamel, he did leave the possibility of a postseason ban a little more open than he did for the vacating of wins, but explained the usual practice of the NCAA in not wanting to punish current players for past violations that they have zero affiliation with.

Additionally, if Michigan's program believed any sort of postseason ban was on the table, or if there were credible reports of that possibility surfacing, the momentum on the recruiting trail likely would have stagnated. Instead, the Wolverines had a very strong summer in landing several top prospects as Moore's program has the 11th-best recruiting class in 2026, according to the Rivals Industry Rankings. In essence, nobody seems worried about the future of the program and any punishments that could impact future Wolverines as it relates to the NCAA's investigation.

Will Sherrone Moore be punished?

Prediction: Yes...but to a lesser extent

Moore is already set to serve a punishment related to the in-person scouting investigation for the deletion of 52 text messages with Stalions alleged to have happened in October of 2023, on the same day that media reports revealed that Stalions was leading an effort to capture the play calling signals of future opponents.

However, the penalty for Moore, which , as of now, is a two-game suspension for Weeks 3 and 4 of the upcoming season when the Wolverines play Central Michigan and Nebraska, is a self-imposed one from the university. The NCAA, after reviewing all of the facts, could levy further punishment against Moore by adding additional games or other measures.

What Moore has going in his favor is that the texts were recovered via "device imaging" and Moore subsequently produced them to enforcement staff, according to the prior mentioned ESPN report. He has been accused of committing a Level II violation, according to the draft of the notice of allegations obtained by ESPN. Level II violations, according to the NCAA's website, are "violations that provide or are intended to provide more than a minimal but less than a substantial or extensive recruiting, competitive or other advantage; includes more than a minimal but less than a substantial or extensive impermissible benefit; or involves conduct that may compromise the integrity of the NCAA collegiate model as set forth in the Constitution and bylaws."

While the school faces several Level I charges, Moore himself is only reported to be facing a Level II violation. The two-game suspension seems likely to hold up and it wouldn't be surprising if the NCAA tacked on a couple more games. Beyond that, it would be shocking to see Moore receive a penalty as severe as a show-cause, but the Wolverines being without him for multiple games and practices this season seems very likely.

Show causes for Jim Harbaugh and Connor Stalions?

Prediction: Likely

Some would argue that the NCAA has an axe to grind with Harbaugh. Whether that's true or not, the organization has come down harshly on the ex-Michigan coach in the past by handing him a four-year show cause order for recruiting violations that involved impermissible contact with recruits during the pandemic. In essence, that means that any college that were to hire Harbaugh over the four-year period of the order would have to justify the decision to the NCAA, while a suspension for Harbaugh would likely follow.

That seemed like a harsh penalty for his program breaking recruiting contact rules during a very odd time in the world, but given the history with Harbaugh and the NCAA, it seems likely the organization would have no issue with coming down hard on him again.

In the grand scheme of things, show cause orders are not going to play much of a factor for the Wolverines or Harbaugh since he is now the head coach of the LA Chargers and likely has no plans of returning to the college game anytime soon.

As far as Stalions is concerned, who has been the center of attention in the investigation after it was revealed he had people he knew at games of Michigan's future opponents sending sideline signals to him, it seems unlikely he will catch any sort of break from the NCAA.

Stalions claimed in April of 2024 in an interview with NCAA investigators, where segments of the interview was released in the Netflix documentary "Sign Stealer," that there were some people who attended games using tickets that he purchased and recorded parts of those games.

"I've had friends send me film," Stalions said. "It's kind of like when your aunt gets you a Christmas gift that you already have. You're not going to be rude and be like, 'Oh, I already have this. I don't need that.' It's, 'Oh, thanks, appreciate it.' They feel like they're helping out when I already have the signals, I've already memorized the signals."

Obtaining opposing teams' signals is not against NCAA rules in itself, but it was the way Stalions allegedly obtained some of them in what caused the NCAA to tap into the situation to see what was going on before launching an investigation.

Even though Stalions maintains his innocence, it's hard to see the NCAA not ordering him a show cause based on multiple reports and all of what Stalions has been alleged to do, including being on the sidelines working for Central Michigan in a game between the Chippewas and the Spartans.

Will Michigan receive a fine?

Prediction: Absolutely

Going back to Thamel's statements in the aforementioned podcast, a large fine for this type of situation would be the most likely outcome in terms of punishment against the university at large.

"What is likely as Michigan cuts a big old check," Thamel said in the podcast.

On that same podcast, Rece Davis joined Thamel in saying a hefty fine would be the most appropriate punishment for the Wolverines.

"That is what the punishments should be, in my judgment,” Davis said. “I’ve said this for years. What drives this enterprise? Money. What sends the biggest message? Taking away money. So if the NCAA wants to be taken seriously consistently as an enforcement body for college sports and college football, particularly, that needs to be the direction in which they go. Fine people. They can do the show cause thing.”

In addition to a fine, further recruiting restrictions—similar to what Michigan endured this summer, such as not being able to host recruits for a period of time, could be on the table as well.

Final verdict

The sign stealing/in-person scouting saga has been a long process that will finally wrap up in the near future. While many rival fans are hoping for Michigan's football program to receive some sort of "death penalty," after gathering information that is available and trying to get a read on the situation as a whole, it seems likely that the online trolls are going to be sorely disappointed.

Michigan football is to undoubtedly get punished in some forms, but will likely be able to keep its accomplishments from 2021-23 and be in a spot as a program to move forward from this once and for all. With that being said, nobody truly knows what the NCAA is going to do until the punishment is officially handed out, so it will be interesting to follow to see what happens in the end.