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What Does ESPN's FPI Say About Georgia Tech's Matchup Against Wake Forest?
Sep 20, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets running back Jamal Haynes (1) runs the ball against the Temple Owls in the second quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech comes into the matchup against Wake Forest as nearly a two-touchdown favorite on the road, per ESPN Bet Sportsbook. The bettors in Las Vegas are expecting the Yellow Jackets to handle business and advance to 5-0 on the season.

ESPN’s FPI also mirrors the same sentiment and heavily favors the Yellow Jackets, giving them an 83.9% chance of winning the game in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Wake Forest is given just a 16.1% chance to win the game at home. In the national landscape, the Yellow Jackets have continued to hover around the No. 30 range according to ESPN analytics. However, their chances to make the College Football Playoff has risen from 0.5% prior to the Temple matchup to 13.9% ahead of the matchup against Wake Forest. Georgia Tech also boasts a 99.7% chance of getting to six wins, which would mean they have clinch another bowl season under head coach Brent Key.

Will Georgia Tech reach 5-0?

A key statistic for this team is that they rank in the top 20 in total offense, averaging 492.3 yards per game, which ranks No. 18 overall. The scary thing with that stat is that the Yellow Jackets' offense hasn’t even clicked on all cylinders yet. They still have work to do, and have had some promising possessions taken away because of turnovers. Imagine if they hadn’t had as many turnovers as they have had to start the season, the numbers would be even better. The Yellow Jackets haven’t clicked on all cylinders just yet, and when they do, they could be an unstoppable force.

Wake Forest looks like an improved team under head coach Jake Dickert, who has the team playing at a high level and is off to a 2-1 start to the year. Dickert was hired by Wake Forest. Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key talked highly of Dickert and what he has accomplished in his coaching career.

“Yeah, this is a good football team now. The first thing to catch your eye is how they play. They play hard. They have a new coaching staff in there. I've had a chance to spend some time with Jake in the offseason at the coaches' meetings and whatnot,” said Key. “You talk about a good football coach now. He's come up the hard way, played small ball, and worked his way up through the ranks. Got the head job at Washington State as interim, and had success there. Three out of four years, take them to  some bowl games.”

I think the team's mindset is something that catches your eye instantly. They aren’t overlooking their opponent and looking ahead to their bye week. Instead, the Yellow Jackets look focused and want to come out and play at a high level. When you don’t overlook your opponent and there is an acute focus, it bodes well in avoiding an upset or a potential slow start to a game. It starts from the top down, and Key is disseminating it. Saturday will give us a good look at whether the team matches that energy from their head coach.

What exactly is FPI though?

"ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

This article first appeared on Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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