What is Fresno State's Path to the Mountain West Championship Game in 2025?

In the past 12 years, Fresno State have been to six Mountain West Championship games. Year-in and year-out, the Bulldogs regularly find a way to put themselves in a position to reach the conference title.

Despite that success, Fresno State has missed out on the last two championship matchups following their victory in 2022. However, the hiring of Matt Entz has started a new wave of excitement in the Central Valley. Entz was active in the transfer portal, as well as in high school recruiting. Fresno State also has many returners, which gives the Bulldogs high hopes to reach their goals in 2025.

Making the Mountain West Championship game isn’t an easy task. In past seasons, records have varied between 0-3 losses in terms of reaching the title game. The likely number is two though, as a 6-2 record likely gets you in. This season, it is fair to assume that two losses could be enough to reach the final.

The Bullogs face Kansas, Georgia Southern, and Oregon State in non-conference play in 2025, which won't be as big of a factor for a championship game spot. Fresno State plays eight conference games this year, meaning they likely will have to win six. They play Hawaii, Nevada, Colorado State, San Diego State, Boise State, Wyoming, Utah State, and San Jose State from the MWC. Let’s split these games into tiers.

Tier 1: Easy Wins

Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego State, Wyoming, and Utah State should all be easy wins for the Bulldogs. They get to face four of five at home, and are ranked above every single one in the preseason Mountain West media poll.

Tier 2: 50/50 Games

Colorado State and San Jose State are likely the two biggest swing games of the season. Last season, the Bulldogs beat both, but now have to go on the road to play each. They will have to take down at least one if they want to stay alive in the race, which is possible, but will surely be tough.

Tier 3: Likely Losses

Boise State is the sole team in this tier. After an incredible 2024, the Broncos return key pieces, and are ready to dominate the conference once again. The Bulldogs do have a chance, but going on the road to Albertsons Stadium is one of the tougher tasks in college football.

Clearly the Bulldogs have a path. As long as they are able to win their games in tier one, and get a win in tier two or three, we may see Fresno State back in the conference championship once again.

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