In a season of struggles for the Yankees, Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger are two of the few bright spots. However, Grisham will be an unrestricted free agent at season’s end and Bellinger has a player option for $25M that he almost certainly is going to decline to become an unrestricted free agent.
There’s little question the Yankees would want both players back; however, their growing price tags are going to make the Bombers weary of doing so. But before we attempt to gauge what each player might get, let's take a look at what they’ve done this year.
In his age-28 season and getting consistent playing time, Grisham is having a career year (a common occurrence for pending free agents). In 113 games, he has a career-high 25 home runs, a career-high tying 3.1 WAR and a career-best .820 OPS as well as a 126 OPS+. On top of that, his defense in center field has been solid. With Grisham still being early in his prime years, he has a strong case to cash in big time this offseason.
Bellinger, 30, is having a resurgent year, though nowhere near the type of season that won him NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2017 or NL MVP in 2019. His .810 OPS is the fifth-best mark of his career, while his 122 OPS+ is the fourth-best he’s compiled. His .270/.322/.488 slashline is solid and All-Star worthy, but not at an MVP level. Bellinger’s 24 home runs and 75 RBIs are strong rebounds, but overall, he is not the player he was when he first came up with the Dodgers. What does bode well for him is his solid defense at all three outfield spots and first base.
Spotrac.com has Grisham’s 2025 salary listed as $5.135M and Bellinger’s as $26.67M. The salary tracking site has Grisham’s market value pegged as $11,917,091 and Bellinger’s as $30,313,533. Assuming Spotrac has pegged their market values correctly, the question now becomes, how long of a contract could each potentially get?
At just under $12M annually and entering his age-29 season, Grisham should have no problem landing a deal around four years in length. While there is some concern over his pumped-up performance, his advanced stats are not too far above his career norms, so he should be able to maintain a similar level of production for the next few years. And even if he has a slight drop off, his salary would not make him a detrimental player.
Bellinger will turn 31 in the middle of next season and while his advanced stats don’t scream massive regression, there’s no doubt that he has benefited from playing half his games at Yankee Stadium. His age will be a factor in his next contract, as will his previous tendencies not to be able to sustain high levels of production. A five-year deal could make sense, but he may have to settle for a lower AAV than what Spotrac has him pegged at.
Overall, a four-year/$48M deal for Grisham and a five-year/$140M deal for Bellinger appear to make the most sense. Whether or not those are with the Yankees or another team remains to be seen.
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