Sep 2, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell before the game against the Boston College Eagles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Where Florida State lands in ESPN’s latest FPI rankings

Originally posted on Florida State Seminoles on SI
By Tommy Mire | Last updated Jun 5, 2025 9:00 AM ET

The first year of the newly formatted 12-team NCAA College Football Playoff has come and gone with Ohio State winning it all at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. With that being washed away, the teams that contended for their spot last season, ESPN has released its new College Football Power Index to help predict where each FBS team will land when it is all said and done in 2025.

Per ESPN.com, “The FPI is a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team's strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes. Those numbers are then plugged into the schedule and everything is simulated 20,000 times to track each team's odds of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing through to the national title.”

Florida State didn't fare as expected last season, producing a 2-10 record that rivaled the program's history, but ESPN's model has predicted an improvement from last year with the Seminoles jumping 39 places to the No. 48 spot. The jump marks the second-largest improvement, behind Florida Atlantic.

The leap is partially due to FSU drawing in the No. 6 transfer class and revamping its coaching staff. However, ESPN isn't too high on the 'Noles as far as win/loss record, and has them ending with a flat 6-6 record when it is all said and done.

This is in part due to the schedule they're up against. Florida State is set to face four of the predicted top 25 offenses, including Alabama (3), Clemson (8), Miami (5), and Florida (18), while also facing three top 25 defenses: Alabama (3), Clemson (15), and Florida (16). The Model also gave the 'Noles a 1.5% chance to win the conference, with Clemson leading that race with 34% odds.

So what does this say about Florida State's future this season? A 6-6 record with a 61% chance to go over seven wins wouldn't be considered the standard at FSU, although a bowl appearance and a victory could do a lot to satiate a fan base that is still wondering just what happened last year.

Again, these are computer predictions, and anything can happen in the college football world. These numbers should only help motivate a team with something to prove.