Michigan State's head coach Tom Izzo thanks the alumni Izzone for supporting the Spartans in the victory over USC on Monday, Jan. 5, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Where MSU Hoops Lands in Latest Bracket Projections

Originally posted on Michigan State Spartans on SI
By Jacob Cotsonika | Last updated Feb 17, 2026 1:15 PM ET

Less than a month from right now, the NCAA Tournament field will be set. Immediately after the Big Ten Tournament final is concluded on Sunday, March 15, the Selection Show will commence and reveal where Michigan State landed.

That doesn't stop people from projecting where MSU would be if the season ended right now. The Spartans are in an interesting spot, ranked 15th in the AP Poll with a 20-5 overall record and a 10-4 record during conference play. Here are a few of the most recent projections that have come out before the Spartans' Tuesday night game against UCLA:

ESPN's Projection

The most well-known "bracketologist," as they are called, is ESPN's Joe Lunardi. With March nearing, he has started uploaded complete bracket projections about twice a week now, along with updates on the top seeds nearly every day.

On Tuesday morning, Lunardi uploaded his latest projection, and he ended up dropping Michigan State down from a 3 to a 4 seed. One of the changes that this comes with is less control over the eventual location of the first- and second-round games. Lunardi has often had MSU projected to go to Philadelphia, Penn. or Buffalo, N.Y. --- the two closest options this year --- but now he has the Spartans traveling to Tampa, Fla.

It is there where Lunardi has them in the West Region, where they would start their run against 13-seeded UNC Wilmington. Going off Lunardi's full projections, a victory there would perhaps set up an interesting Round 2 matchup against 5 seed Arkansas. Michigan State and the Razorbacks played back on Nov. 8 during the second game of the season, with MSU winning, 69-66.

Of course, there is also the possibility that 12th-seeded Belmont would pull the upset. No matter the path, if the Spartans were to win two games and survive Tampa, they would then have to San Jose, Calif. for the next two rounds. The three teams seeded higher in the region are: No. 1 Arizona, No. 2 Purdue, and No. 3 Texas Tech.

CBS's Projection

CBS's David Cobb and Jacob Fetner are less optimistic about MSU's current standing. They have the Spartans as a 5 seed in the East Region, as of their latest update on Tuesday morning. CBS doesn't project the locations for first-weekend games, but if Michigan State were to advance to the Sweet 16, it would travel to Washington, D.C.

Matching up in the first round, though, would be 12th-seeded Liberty. The Flames were actually a 12 seed in last year's tourney, where they got blown out by 29 to Oregon in the first round. If MSU wins there, it would have either No. 4 Texas Tech or No. 13 High Point awaiting next. The region's top three seeds here are: No. 1 Duke, No. 2 Houston, and No. 3 Nebraska.

This article first appeared on Michigan State Spartans on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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