Where Oregon Ducks, Big Ten Powerhouses Fall In Updated College Football Projections

The FPI measures a team’s strength on a net points scale with expected point margin versus an average opponent on a neutral field. It predicts how many points above or below the average team a program is based on 20,000 season simulations.

All 18 Big Ten programs remain in the FPI top 100. Five teams shifted their standings despite the fact that the Big Ten has yet to have a game.

The Ohio State Buckeyes remain the top Big Ten school in FPI, ranked No. 4. The Buckeyes are projected to be 20.5 points above the average college football team, according to FPI’s simulations. Ohio State also has the highest chance of any Big Ten team to make the National Championship game (20 percent) and win the title (10. 3percent) this season.

Even though the Buckeyes are ranked No. 3 in the nation by the first AP Poll and Penn State is ranked No. 2, the Nittany Lions sit below Ohio State in FPI. Penn State has an FPI score of 20.3 and nine percent chance of winning the National Championship.

The Ducks round out the trio of Big Ten programs which rank inside the top 10 in FPI, holding a No. 7 ranking.

The Indiana Hoosiers and the Washington Huskies both move down a spot in FPI after week zero. The Hoosiers dropped from No. 25 to No. 26 nationally. The Huskies went from No. 32 to No. 33.

Three of the lowest FPI ranked Big Ten teams moved up in the rankings. The UCLA Bruins went from No. 52 to No. 51, the Michigan State Spartans went from No. 60 to No. 59 and the Maryland Terrapins went from No. 62 to No. 61.

How Oregon’s Chances Compare To 2024

Oregon enters the season with a No. 7 ranking in both the AP Poll and the FPI. The Ducks have an FPI score of 17.7 and are predicted to have 9.4 wins and 2.9 losses.

FPI gives Oregon a 51 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff (CFP) but only a 13.6 percent shot at repeating as Big Ten Conference Champions. The Ducks have just a 9.1 percent chance at making the National Championship game and a 3.7 percent chance of winning the National Championship.

Last season, Oregon finished with a 13-1 overall record. The Ducks have finished with 10 or more wins in each of the last four seasons. FPI isn’t predicting the program to make it five years in a row despite Oregon only playing two teams in the FPI top 25 in the regular season (Penn State and USC).

The Ducks will open the season on Aug. 30 against Montana State. Depending on how the team starts the season, it could see its title odds shift with the ranking changes.