Which Dark Horse Can Go on a Cinderella Run in the NASCAR Playoffs?

The playoffs have had a history of dark horse runs going far. Similar to Ryan Newman’s performance in the first-ever playoffs in 2014, MTJ’s success the following year, Kyle Busch’s remarkable comeback from injury to win the title the same year, and Aric Almirola’s recovery from a back injury to finish 5th in points. So who has the best chance this year to have their own? That’s what I found out?

Dark Horse No.1: Josh Berry

Berry made the playoffs after winning Las Vegas on pace, and while it hasn’t been the best season since then, there’s a reason why the No. 21 could go far in the playoffs this year. Many of Berry’s best tracks are in the playoffs. Like Darlington, where he finished 3rd with SHR last year, or Martinsville, where he won in Xfinity before. Plus Las Vegas, where he won this year to get into the playoffs, and then Phoenix, the place for the finale, where Penske (with which Wood Brothers has an alliance) has done excellently with the next gen, and where Berry earned his 1st career top 10.

Dark Horse No.2: Alex Bowman

You look at many of those previous Cinderella runs in playoff history, like Almirola, Newman, and MTJ, and consistency was a crucial factor to those runs. And you’re not going to find many drivers more consistent than Alex Bowman. Plus, he’s had great runs at many of the upcoming tracks in the playoffs this year. Like top tens at Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Talladega, plus top 5s at Kansas, and almost won in Xfinity at Phoenix. Not to mention he’s had clutch moments in the playoffs before, like in 2018 at the Roval or 2024 before his DQ. Showing he can perform under playoff pressure.

Dark Horse No.3: Bubba Wallace

While Bowman has consistency going for him, what Bubba Wallace has going for him is that many of his best tracks are in the playoffs. While Talladega is where he got his 1st career win, his 7th best track on average is Martinsville, where he averages a finish of 16th. He’s also won at Kansas before and has 3 top tens there as well as having the 8th to 10th of his best career tracks, with the Charlotte roval being his 8th best track, where he has an average finish of 18.1, then Darlington, where he averages 18.5, and Bristol, where he averages a 19.2 finish.

Dark Horse No.4: Shane Van Gisbergen

Now onto the fan favorite of all the dark horses. SVG has enough playoff points that all he needs is decent results, and he moves on to the 1st round. The Roval ends the 2nd round, and if he can win 4 out of 5 of the road courses so far this season, his winning 5 out of 6 wouldn’t be a shock at all.

Then, in the round of 8, is Talladega, now at plate tracks. SVG hasn’t gotten the finishes yet, but he’s shown a lot of speed there. He’s even led plenty of laps, so a win there is possible for him (as it is for anyone, really), and would get him into the final 4. So while it’s a stretch based on his current form, there’s a path for him to make even more history.

Dark Horse No.5: Ross Chastain

The other playoff Trackhouse driver. By his standards, he hasn’t been in his best form, only earning 3 top tens in the past 11 races. But if he’s been saving his best for the playoffs or uses the pressure and high expectations to get himself focused again, he can return to the final four again. His 1st appearance was in 2022, making him the only driver here with a final four appearance.

Many of his best tracks are like Darlington, Kansas, Las Vegas, and Martinsville where he became famous; New Hampshire; and Phoenix. Plus, he has won at road courses and not only plate tracks, but also Talladega, so he can also use those two tracks alone to move on to the round of 4 if he can win at both tracks or even do great enough there. Thanks a bunch for reading!