Why Mitch Marner was not the problem for the Toronto Maple Leafs

Any fan of the Toronto Maple Leafs will tell you that the last nine years haven’t been easy. The core four experiment clearly didn’t work. But all of the criticism that the four of these guys got, Leafs fans have been saying for years. Even before the core four era, Phil Kessel was called soft and the opposite of a winner. He went on to win three Stanley Cups after being traded from Toronto in 2015.

Even Nazem Kadri got a ton of hate after his back-to-back playoff suspensions. He left and won a Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche in 2022. Over the last few years, the Florida Panthers have run through the Eastern Conference. Wouldn’t it be nice if the Leafs had a Kadri-type player to counter them?

Many Leafs fans, after Mitch Marner’s trade to the Vegas Golden Knights, had a “good riddance” mentality, believing the team would be better without him. I disagree, so I will be defending Mitch Marner. 

Marner’s Leaf Era

I know he hasn’t been great in the playoffs in past years. We can play an entire highlight tape of Marner making ridiculous passes that turn into turnovers or puck-over-glass penalties. However, the fact of the matter is, Marner is an excellent player. I’ve said multiple times he’s one of the most offensively gifted players the Leafs have ever had. 

He’s been a 90–100 point guy through his time in Toronto, and he might still be reaching his ceiling as a player. If he could improve on some things, he’ll be even better in Vegas. It all starts with his mindset; he needs to shoot more. No more between-the-legs passes to nobody on a breakaway. 

4 Nations lessons

When he plays with a star player, he turns into a passive facilitator, as seen during the 4 Nations. He started the tournament on a line with Connor McDavid and Sam Reinhart, and it didn’t work. He was trying to set up McDavid but was making mistakes. Then he was demoted to the third line with Anthony Cirerelli and Brandon Hagel. Marner came alive. He started attacking. He even had two points in the championship game against the United States. 

Sure, he had the overtime winner against Sweden for Canada, but that’s part of the criticism he receives, because it was 3-on-3 overtime, which doesn’t happen in the playoffs. 

No one is going to complain about Marner’s regular season numbers; he’s elite. However, it’s the playoffs when the criticism comes. His career point per game total in the regular season is 1.12, which is fantastic. However, his career points per game total in the playoffs is 0.9.  Everybody knows the playoffs come with a whole other level of intensity and physicality. However, in the last nine playoff games where the Leafs have been eliminated from the playoffs, Marner has two assists and is -8. 

Comparison

Let’s compare that to another guy drafted in 2015, Mikko Rantanen. His regular season point per game total is 1.08. Marner has him beat, but in the playoffs, Rantanen’s numbers go up to 1.24 points per game. In the seven games where Rantanen has been eliminated from the playoffs, he has four goals, six points, and is only minus five. 

Both Marner and Rantanen are making $12M per year for the next eight years, which doesn’t really make sense. Having said that, it’s unfair to use those numbers against Marner and let everyone else off the hook. You can say the exact same thing about Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and William Nylander. 

All four are great regular season players, which is excellent, but come that elimination game, they fail to perform. We’re left with the question: Will Mitch Marner be effective in the playoffs after Toronto? I said it earlier, absolutely! 

He’s going to a team filled with winners and will no doubt be taking notes from them. Vegas is not the same as Toronto, and I’m sure that’s part of the reason he chose the Golden Knights.

Core four money issues

Everybody knows the problem with the core four: Money. The Leafs paid all four of them as if they already won, which made them a top-heavy team with little to no depth. When you look at this year’s playoff run, Florida had Brad Marchand, Eetu Luostarinen, and Anton Lundell on their third line. Whereas the Leafs had to swap guys in and out in their bottom-six due to the lack of depth. 

There are many factors that play into contract negotiations. Is it a team-friendly deal? Or did the player get paid what they’re actually worth? What was their last deal? For a guy like Marner, who was overpaid from the start, it’s hard to convince them to bring their AAV down.

Early mistakes

Out of all players in the league, Matthews and Marner had the lowest percent increase from first to second contract. Marner received a 10 percent increase and Matthews got a 13 percent increase, indicating they were overpaid from the jump. For that, you can blame Kyle Dubas and Brendan Shanahan. Many fans thought that after the Leafs signed Tavares, they were going to be the next great NHL dynasty. Similar to the Chicago Blackhawks in the early 2010s. But looking at the contracts tells you everything you need to know. 

In 2020, the salary cap was $81.5M, and after signing for $10.9M, Marner took up 13.3% of the Leafs’ total cap hit. The last time Chicago won a cup, the salary cap was $69M. Patrick Kane was taking up 9.1% of the cap while being paid $6.3M. The following season, Kane was being paid $10.5M, taking up 14.7% of the cap. The Blackhawks never won again. 

So if Kane took up 9.1 percent of the cap in 2015, let’s compare that to Marner. If Marner had taken the same percentage, he would’ve been paid $7.4M. You do that, and sign Nylander for $7M, Matthews for $10M, Tavares for $11M, and you save yourself some money. You take that money and surround your stars with depth, and then when they become UFAs, they cash in. Instead, the Leafs did that part backwards and have two series wins to show for it. 

A necessary goodbye

Fans use words like “heart,” “leadership,” “drive,” or “determination” to describe the core four’s problems. This year, using Marner as the main scapegoat. However, it’s not the players, it’s the management. They overpaid everyone. The Leafs became the 2016 Blackhawks, but without the dynasty. 

When it comes to Marner, I think it’s best for him and the team that he’s no longer with the Leafs because he can dominate alongside Eichel like we know he’s capable of, and the money the Leafs have saved by not signing him opens up all kinds of possibilities for the future.