Wisconsin Badgers Have Two of the Top Five Most Improbable Wins of the Basketball Season

He calculated what the win probability in each game would be for an average bubble team playing that opponent.

Wisconsin's win over then-undefeated Michigan remains the most unlikely win of any team this season.

The theoretical average bubble team would have just a 1.1 percent chance of winning that game. The Badgers won by three and led for all of the last four minutes of the game.

Tuesday's win over Illinois was almost as unlikely. Miyakawa has that win as a 5.2 percent change of victory for an average bubble team, tied for the fourth most improbable decision of the season.

In many ways, that game felt even more improbable given how Wisconsin trailed for so much of the game and was down double-digits with only seven minutes remaining.

It took overtime to pull off the upset win over the Illini, but No. 8 Illinois hadn't been quite the juggernaut that Michigan was when it hosted UW in January.

It didn't help that Illinois had a similarly tough loss in December to Nebraska on a game-winning buzzer beater, which tied the Wisconsin game with a 5.2 percent winning chance for an average bubble team.

It's clear the Badgers are much more dangerous than an average bubble team, and they have the potential to make some real noise in March Madness.

They've already knocked off some of the best teams in the Big Ten. They won't have much fear taking on No. 1 or 2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.