Yordan Alvarez’s Return to the Astros Comes at the Perfect Time

Having Alvarez, who has turned himself into one of the game’s most prolific sluggers over the past few years, certainly won’t hurt those efforts.

An Already Strong Lineup Gets Stronger

Between May 3 (the Astros’ first game without Alvarez) and August 25 (their final game before he returned), Houston hardly had trouble keeping their offense producing. In fact, their 105 wRC+ across 100 games in that window ranked 11th in the league and had their entire offensive unit 5% above league-average at the dish.

While that number doesn’t necessarily jump off the page, they were tied with the Mariners and outperformed Seattle in multiple categories, including batting average, OBP, SLG, and fWAR, during this timeframe.

While Alvarez was on the shelf, the Astros had three qualifying hitters post above-average lines: Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, and Christian Walker. Amongst hitters with a minimum of 200 plate appearances during that time, Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes, Jake Meyers, and Victor Caratini join the party.

Point being, it’s been an all-hands-on-deck type of approach for the Astros over the past few months. Each of the six aforementioned players have double-digit home run totals during this span as well. The club was right in the middle of the pack in total home runs and ISO without Alvarez, but adding one of their best power hitters into the fray will help matters.

When it comes to Alvarez, the Astros are going to need him to look much more like his 2024 self as the final stretch run nears. He hit 35 home runs with 86 RBI and a 167 wRC+ last year in what was an outstanding performance from the sweet-swinging slugger. Of course, that wasn’t even the best showing of his career, but that fact alone tells you all you need to know about the ridiculous amount of talent he’s got in his bat.

This year, things have not gone as well for Alvarez in the 30 games he’s appeared in. Through 125 plate appearances, he’s hit three home runs with 18 RBI, a .206 average, and a 76 wRC+ that’s got him worth -0.2 fWAR to this point. He’s walking at a career-high rate so far (14.4% clip) and striking out 16.8% of the time (second-lowest of his career), but the sample size is still growing. Outside of that, there hasn’t been much to lean on for the Astros.

Hope From the Rehab Assignment

On his journey back to big-league action, Alvarez needed just four rehab games to prove that he was ready for a return.

In four games for the Astros’ Double-A affiliate, the seven-year veteran went 7-for-15 (.467 average) with four doubles, four runs scored, and four more driven in. A 1.263 OPS across four games isn’t quite enough to convince anyone that he’s “back,” but it’s certainly a good start.

Throughout his career, Alvarez has never been one for long slumps. In fact, his .219 average through the first month of the 2025 season is the lowest he’s had in a month since July of 2021. He’s been the picture of consistency for years now, and the concern-o-meter should be extremely low amongst Astros fans.

Yordan Alvarez Has Returned At the Perfect Time

As the month of September nears, the Astros should be able to tread water even if Alvarez doesn’t rediscover his A-swing. However, if he does (and history suggests that he will), he’d be more than enough to propel an already dangerous team straight to the postseason.

Even though the Texas Rangers are only six games behind the Astros in the AL West standings, it feels like it’s going to be Houston or Seattle on top of this division by the time all is said and done.

The Mariners brought in Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez, and Caleb Ferguson at this year’s trade deadline to try and push themselves over the top in the division. The Astros added Ramon Urias, Jesus Sanchez, and old friend Carlos Correa at the deadline while recently signing Enyel De Los Santos and Craig Kimbrel to help shore up their bullpen.

These two clubs are going to continue to trade blows over the final month-plus of the regular season. Of all divisions around the league, the fight for the AL West is going to be one of the top battles to keep an eye on.

Where the Astros may eventually gain the upper hand is in the form of players that are currently injured. Before the season comes to a close, the club is expecting Jake Meyers, Josh Hader, Taylor Trammell, Zach Dezenzo, Isaac Paredes, and potentially Luis Garcia back at various points in the month of September. Pair virtually any of these players with a Yordan Alvarez rebound, and this team suddenly looks like the runaway favorites.