2024 Charles Schwab Challenge: Favorite Outright Bets, Long Shot Picks

The 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge begins on Thursday, May 23, at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. Colonial Country Club (par 70) has hosted the event every year since 1946, serving as the PGA Tour's longest-running non-major tournament played at the same venue.

However, a new-look Colonial will be unveiled this week, as renowned modern golf architect Gil Hanse led a $25 million restoration process following the conclusion of last year's tournament. While the track remains relatively the same in terms of yardage (7,289 yards), Hans intended to return the course to its original look while also updating necessary fixtures, such as implementing a new irrigation system, adding cleaner sight lines on certain holes, relocating green complexes, removing sand bunkers, and bringing the barrancas into play on nine holes.

Despite the Charles Schwab Challenge falling the week after the PGA Championship, the 136-player field teeing it up features 10 of the top 30 players in the Official World Golf Ranking, led by Dallas natives Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth. Max Homa, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Brian Harman, Sungjae Kim, Tom Kim, Min Woo Lee, Justin Rose, and Adam Scott are other notable players at Colonial this week.

Last time, Emiliano Grillo defeated Adam Schenk in a playoff to snap his seven-year winless drought for his second PGA Tour title. Grillo held a two-shot advantage heading to the 72nd hole but made a disastrous double-bogey after hitting his tee shot into the water hazard. However, Grillo was able to hold off Schenk in a playoff, as he stuck his approach shot on the second playoff hole to five feet and converted on the birdie putt. Scottie Scheffler shot three-under 67 in the final round to finish tied for third and just one stroke back of the playoff.

Let's get into my favorite plays this week at Colonial Country Club!

FAVORITE OUTRIGHTS

Tony Finau (+3000 BetRivers Enhanced)

Finau popped for over nine strokes gained with his irons last week at the PGA Championship, leading all players in that category by a comfortable margin. While his ongoing issues with the putter are cause for concern, I believe he's talented enough to contend in this field regardless and has a lofty history at Colonial Country Club.

Outside of a missed cut last year, Finau has no result worse than 34th and two top-five finishes (2nd in 2019 and T4 in 2022) in eight career trips to Fort Worth. He's gained over two strokes in the ball-striking categories in his last seven appearances here, and perhaps more importantly, he's gained strokes with the putter five times. Finau also has gained strokes off the tee in all eight starts and only lost strokes around the green once (way back in 2016). It's pretty clear he feels comfortable on this course.

Finau's power and accuracy combination from tee to green will do him wonders on a tight tree-lined track like Colonial that features minuscule green complexes, as he ranks fifth in Total Driving and 18th in Greens in Regulation Percentage over the past 24 rounds and ninth in SG: Approach over the past 12 rounds. Additionally, Finau rates out well in all the primary yardage ranges for this week, as he's 13th in Proximity 175-200 Yards, 16th in Proximity 150-175 Yards, 29th in Proximity 200-225 Yards, and 41st in Proximity 100-125 Yards. It's also worth noting Finau is fifth in SG: Par-3s (200+ Yards), fifth in SG: Colonial CC, and fifth in Implied Win Percentage.

While I can't ignore Finau's struggles on the greens in 2024, as he's gained strokes with the putter five times in 13 starts, his elite approach abilities should give him more birdie looks than most of the field this week. Given his track record on the greens at Colonial, his past results in the Lone Star State, and the form he's in with his irons, I feel 30/1 odds are more than fair for a player with Finau's upside.

Tom Hoge (+5500 BetRivers Enhanced)

Hoge has been one of the best iron players in the world NOT named Scottie Scheffler this season, as the 34-year-old ranks second on Tour in SG: Approach and has gained over three strokes to the field in 11 of 16 starts. While he's struggled in his career at Colonial Country Club with just one finish better than 40th in eight trips, I expect Hoge's splendid current approach play to give him ample birdie opportunities this week.

Among all players in the field, Hoge ranks third in my model, as the former Texas Christian University standout is 11th in SG: Approach, 13th in SG: Putting, and 16th in Scrambling over the past 24 rounds. Even more impressive though is that Hoge sits inside the top 15 in ALL the key approach buckets, ranking second from 100-125 yards, 10th from 150-175 yards, 11th from 200-225 yards, and 15th from 175-200 yards. Against the best players in the world last week, Hoge gained over six strokes with his irons and three strokes putting en route to a T23 at Valhalla.

Hoge's approach and putting upside is always enticing, but I believe there are few courses where that combination correlates to success more than Colonial. Seven of the last eight winners of this tournament have finished in the top 10 in SG: Putting for the week en route to victory, and five of the past six finished top-eight in SG: Approach. Hoge's entering Fort Worth in sturdy form in both areas, and I believe that makeup bodes well for his chances of contending this week.

LONG SHOT PICKS

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+5500 BetRivers Enhanced)

Bezuidenhout might not be well known outside the niche golf gambling community, but he's been remarkably consistent throughout the first half of the 2024 campaign. With just four results outside the top 30 in 14 worldwide starts, 'CBez' is rolling heading into Colonial Country Club, where he's finished inside the top 21 each of the last two years.

Similar to Hoge, Bezuidenhout currently possesses magnificent upside with his irons and putter and fits perfectly on a setup like Colonial. The 30-year-old South African ranks 13th in Proximity on Tour this season and is 36th in SG: Approach over the past 24 rounds. Bezuidenhout has also been excellent with his wedges/short irons, as he's ninth in Proximity 100-125 Yards, 23rd in Proximity 175-200 Yards, and 28th in Proximity 150-175 Yards.

While his iron play has been sturdy, the flat stick has been Bezuidenhout's primary weapon for most of the season. He's gained over two strokes putting EIGHT times and dropped strokes to the field last week at the PGA Championship for the first time since the WM Phoenix Open in early February. Among all players in the field, Bezuidenhout ranks third in SG: Putting over the past 24 rounds and is ninth in SG: Putting (Bentgrass). It's also worth noting he's 11th in Scrambling and 13th in Bogey Avoidance during that same span.

Despite sitting 137th in SG: Off The Tee, 'CBez' gained over a stroke in that category while finishing T21 here last year and dropped just 0.13 strokes in his T15 in 2022. Not only do his past results suggest he's comfortable from the tee boxes at Colonial, but I'm also encouraged to see he currently ranks 45th on Tour in Distance From Edge of Fairway. If Bezuidenhout can miss small around this course, I believe he's talented enough in the other areas to carry him to his first victory in the United States.

Mark Hubbard (+11000 BetRivers Enhanced)

Hubbard impressively gained over nine strokes to the field through 36 holes at the PGA Championship before unraveling on Saturday en route to a T26 finish. While he doesn't have many high-end results this year, the 34-year-old Texas resident has been rather steady with no missed cuts in 14 starts and finished T9 in his most recent trip to Colonial Country Club.

Over the past 24 rounds, Hubbard ranks 21st in SG: Approach, 12th in Fairways Gained, 14th in Proximity 175-200 Yards, and 18th in Proximity 150-175 Yards among all players in the field. He also ranks 32nd in SG: Putting (Bentgrass) during that same period and is 14th in SG: Putting over the past 12 rounds.

Outside of a T3 at the Zurich Classic alongside partner Ryan Brehm, Hubbard hasn't finished in the top 20 since the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. However, he's quietly gained over four strokes to the field in four of his last six outings, and it feels like he's on the verge of putting it all together. Last week at Valhalla, Hubbard gained strokes in all four major categories for only the second time since the start of the 2023 season. Accomplishing that feat against arguably the best field in professional golf is incredibly impressive for a player of his caliber, and that has me encouraged for his chances this week.

Hubbard arrives in Fort Worth in solid form and has a decent track record at Colonial, with no missed cuts in five career appearances. The San Jose State alum popped for over seven strokes with his irons last year and has gained at least 1.4 strokes in the short-game categories in all five starts. With all parts of his game seeming sharp and a positive history on this track, I'm willing to bite on 'Homeless Hubbs' at 110/1 odds.

*All statistics from the PGA Tour website or RickRunGood.com*