2024 Texas Children's Houston Open: Favorite Outright Bets, Long Shot Picks

With just two weeks until the Masters at Augusta National, the PGA Tour heads to the Lone Star State for its final tune-ups, starting with the 2024 Texas Children's Houston Open on Thursday, Mar. 28, at Memorial Park Golf Course. After a 57-year absence on Tour, the Houston Open returned to Memorial Park in 2020 after a $19 million renovation project was completed by Tom Doak in 2019. The course stretches a whopping 7,435 yards now and plays as a par-70 with tree-lined fairways, 1.5-inch Ryegrass rough, heavily undulated Bermuda green complexes overseeded with Poa trivialis, and four holes with water hazards. While the course has been among the most pesky non-major venues in recent years, the rough has been shortened for this year's tournament, and there was heavy rainfall in the Houston area early in the week. The winning score hasn't eclipsed 16-under in three years since returning to Memorial Park, but I'm anticipating easier scoring conditions now.

Most of the PGA Tour's biggest names are resting up with the Masters approaching, but there is still some firepower in the 144-player field teeing it up this week in Houston. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler headlines the group and is looking to become the first player since Dustin Johnson in 2017 to win three consecutive starts on the PGA Tour. Scheffler is joined by the reigning U.S. Open winner Wyndham Clark, Will Zalatoris, defending champion Tony Finau, Jason Day, Sahith Theegala, Si Woo Kim, Jake Knapp, Keith Mitchell, Daniel Berger, and Nick Dunlap.

Last time, Tony Finau fired a 1-under 69 on Sunday to cruise to a four-shot victory over Tyson Alexander for his fifth career PGA Tour title. Finau raced out to 13-under through the opening 36 holes following an 8-under 62 on Friday and held an eight-shot advantage at one point during the final round. With a 16-under 264 for the week, Finau set a new tournament scoring record en route to the win.

Let's get into my favorite plays this week at Memorial Park!

FAVORITE BETS

Will Zalatoris (+2000 PointsBet)

Zalatoris burned me and plenty of others with his missed cut at THE PLAYERS two weeks ago, but I'm willing to quickly forgive the 27-year-old Dallas native and believe it would be foolish to count him out on a course like Memorial Park. After all, Zalatoris still gained 2.25 strokes with his irons in two rounds at TPC Sawgrass but was doomed by losing over four strokes in the short-game categories. It's also worth mentioning that Zalatoris had missed the most putts between five to ten feet of any player in the last three seasons at TPC Sawgrass heading into this year's tournament, so maybe he was damned before the thing even got started.

If you completely ignore what Willy Z did at THE PLAYERS two weeks ago, then the stats will show you he's one of the few players capable of having the upside to take down Scottie Scheffler and has been playing tremendous golf in all facets of the game. Zalatoris gained strokes in all four categories at both Torrey Pines (T13) and Riviera (T2), and he nearly did it again at Bay Hill (T4) but lost 0.78 strokes around the greens.

Zalatoris has always done his best work on long and difficult golf courses, and while Memorial Park may play easier than usual this year with the fairway rough cut down, the track should still favor his skillset. Willy Z ranks 5th in SG: Long Courses, sixth in Proximity 200-225 Yards, and 22nd in Proximity 175-200 Yards over the last 24 rounds and is fourth in SG: Approach over the last 12 rounds. Even more encouraging is that Zalatoris now seems to have the putting upside necessary to win a tournament with a winning score that could reach 20-under, as he gained strokes with his new broomstick-style putter in four consecutive events before THE PLAYERS Championship.

Excluding what happened in Ponta Vedra, Zalatoris has an argument for being the third-hottest golfer in the world right now, behind only Scheffler and Wyndham Clark. While he's yet to tee it up at Memorial Park in his professional career, this style of setup shouldn't be too unfamiliar to a homegrown Texan. There are too many reasons to be encouraged for Willy Z's chances this week, and I'll have tons of FOMO if I leave him off my card. For that reason... I'M IN!

Sahith Theegala (+2200 BetRivers)

Theegala has been on an unbelievable run to kick off 2024, as he's racked up four top-10 finishes and only one missed cut in eight starts. The 26-year-old Pepperdine product is coming off back-to-back top-10s in Florida and placed T22 on his most recent trip to Memorial Park in 2022. I'm probably more inclined to back Theegala than most since I've been on him all season long, but I think he's more than due for his second PGA Tour title.

What's kept Theegala from winning so far this year is the inability to put all parts of his game together for four consecutive rounds, but he's flashed plenty of upside in all areas. He was plagued by an uncharacteristically poor chipping display at TPC Sawgrass, where he lost strokes in all four rounds and 3.46 strokes total around the greens en route to his T9. A shame really since he gained over 5.1 strokes in the ball-striking categories that week. Theegala also lost strokes with his approach shots in the first three rounds of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and all four rounds at The Genesis Invitational, and he had previously popped for 5.6 strokes gained with his irons in the previous event in Phoenix.

But what has been consistent for Theegala this year has been the driving and putting. He's gained strokes off the tee AND on the greens in all but one of his eight events this season, and Memorial Park is the type of course where driving and putting can get you a long way. There's also been evidence of winning upside despite coming up just short of victory multiple times, as he ranks ninth in SG: Total (five or more strokes) among all players in the field.

Admittedly, there's a lot of volatility in Theegala's game that makes me a bit concerned given his low outright odds this week, but I believe Memorial Park is a great setup for his style of play. With consistent driving and putting, long-iron upside, plenty of around-the-green creativity, and not to mention remarkable form entering Houston, this seems like a good spot for win No. 2 on the Sahith Theegala resume.

LONG SHOT PICKS

Stephan Jaeger (+5000 BetRivers)

Jaeger went through a putrid Florida swing, as his best finish was a T44 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational while missing the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship and the Cognizant Classic. However, he got off to a tremendous start to the season with a pair of T3s at the Mexico Open and Farmers Insurance Open and is returning to a spot where he captured one of his six career top-10s on the PGA Tour.

Most of Jaeger's struggles this season have occurred with the putter, as he's lost over one stroke to the field on the greens in four of his last six outings. The flat stick likely cost the German his first Tour win at Torrey Pines earlier in the year, as he dropped over 1.5 strokes in each of his weekend rounds en route to his T3 result. But the promising news is that Jaeger's finest putting performance as a full-time PGA Tour member came one year ago at Memorial Park, where he popped for 6.24 strokes gained on the greens. It's also worth noting his third-best putting week in the last two years was at the 2023 CJ CUP Byron Nelson (4.38 strokes gained), located roughly 300 miles away in McKinney, Texas.

Jaeger is one of the longest drivers off the tee among all players in the field, as he ranks ninth in Driving Distance (307.5 yards) this season. He pairs that by ranking fourth in Total Driving over the last 24 rounds, and with Memorial Park featuring less-penal fairway rough this year, the 34-year-old should be able to mash away on all the par-4s and par-5s. Jaeger also ranks seventh in SG: Long Courses, seventh in Approach Putt Performance, 13th in SG: Tee To Green, 19th in Proximity 175-200 Yards, 20th in Par-4s: 450-550 Yards, 25th in Par-5s: 600+ Yards, and 33rd in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds.

Both of Jaeger's best finishes this season have occurred at long, driver-heavy golf courses, and it doesn't surprise me that he finished T9 here in 2022 and 35th in 2021. This layout sets up perfectly for Jaeger, and he's been knocking on the door for his inaugural victory for a while now. While he doesn't enter with the best form, I believe 50/1 odds are fair for his upside at Memorial Park.

Jake Knapp (+6000 PointsBet)

Knapp is another player who hits the ball a long way, as he ranks 20th on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance this season and is still less than a month removed from his win at the 2024 Mexico Open. While things didn't go well for Knapp in his final two starts of the Florida swing, as he lost a hilarious 10.5 strokes to the field at Bay Hill and was never in the mix at TPC Sawgrass, he made the cut at both prestigious events despite not having his best stuff. Some may feel like Knapp Time has come and gone, but I believe he might actually be encouraged heading into this week, and Memorial Park should be a perfect spot for him to unleash his effortless speed and power.

Vidanta Vallarta felt like an ideal setup for the 29-year-old PGA Tour rookie, as there wasn't much penalty for missing the fairway throughout the course. Knapp was able to hit his driver on most holes that week, and he'll be allowed to do the same here in Houston. While Memorial Park isn't as wide open as Vidanta was, I do believe the easier course conditions will favor the style Knapp prefers to play, and his distance and long-iron game figures to give him a leg-up over most of the competition if he executes properly.

Throwing aside the T45 in his last start at a volatile, water-filled track like TPC Sawgrass, Knapp gained over 2.5 strokes in each of his five previous outings since he first stepped onto the scene at Torrey Pines. BTW, that's another long, driver-friendly golf course that led me to bet on Stephan Jaeger this week. Anyways, the ball striking has been sensational for Knapp in 2024, as he ranks sixth in SG: Long Courses, seventh in SG: Approach, 14th in Proximity 175-200 Yards, 14th in Par-4s: 500+ Yards, and 20th in SG: Tee To Green over the last 24 rounds.

Not only has Knapp flashed an elite skill set from tee to green during his rookie campaign, but the short game has also been impressive when needed. The California native ranks 32nd in Bogey Avoidance over the last 24 rounds and has gained strokes with the putter in five of his last six events. Three of those have been gains of over three strokes to the field, suggesting there's enough upside in all parts of his game to win at a course like Memorial Park. Knapp also relied heavily on his around-the-green game to seal the deal on Sunday en route to victory in Mexico.

Knapp ranks fifth in SG: Total (five or more strokes) among all players over the last 24 rounds, which, again, leads me to believe the upside is well worth a 60/1 wager this week on a track that should suit his eye nicely.