2024 Valero Texas Open: Favorite Outright Bets, Long Shot Picks

The 2024 Valero Texas Open begins on Thursday, April 4, at TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), serving as the final tune-up event and qualifying opportunity for the Masters at Augusta National. Any player who has yet to be invited to Augusta can do so only by picking up a victory in San Antonio this week.

TPC San Antonio (par 72) opened in February 2010 and was designed by LIV Golf CEO Greg Norman with help from player consultant Sergio Garcia. The course stretches a whopping 7,438 yards with tree-lined fairways, 2.25-inch Ryegrass rough, 64 sand bunkers, and Champion Bermuda greens overseeded with Poa Trivialis. The track is also susceptible to heavy Texas wind gusts and unpredictable weather, which always plays a factor in dictating the scoring conditions.

The 144-player field teeing it up at TPC San Antonio this week is the strongest since the tournament was moved to the Masters prelude in 2019, with nine of the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking in attendance. World No. 2 Rory McIlroy, 2021 champion Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, and Hideki Matsuyama are the biggest stars in the field and are joined by Matthew Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, Brian Harman, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, and defending champion Corey Conners.

Last time, Corey Conners held off a late charge from Sam Stevens to pick up his second PGA Tour victory — both coming at the Valero Texas Open. Conners began the final round one shot back of 54-hole leader Patrick Rodgers but got off to a hot start and grabbed a three-shot advantage with three holes to play. Stevens eagled the driveable par-4 17th hole to get within one shot of Conners, but the veteran Canadian was able to make par at the 18th for a four-under 68 to seal the deal.

Let's get into my favorite plays this week at TPC San Antonio!

FAVORITE BETS

Hideki Matsuyama (+2000 FanDuel)

Hideki has been playing fantastic golf over the last two months, as he's followed up on his victory at The Genesis Invitational with a T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship. The 2021 Masters champion is one of the few players at the top of the betting board that I can trust right now, and there are plenty of reasons to believe he has the best form of anyone entering this week.

Matsuyama rates out as the best player in the field according to my model, as the 32-year-old Japanese superstar ranks first in SG: Around The Green, 2nd in Par-5's (600+ Yards), seventh in SG: Approach, 13th in Proximity 200-225 Yards, 14th in Bogey Avoidance, 14th in Greens Gained, 17th in Scrambling, 19th in SG: Off The Tee, 21st in SG: Long Courses, 24th in Proximity 175-200 Yards, and 34th in Approach Putt Performance over the last 24 rounds. It's been a magnificent run from tee to green for Hideki, and he's been rolling the rock on the greens much better as of late.

Not only has Matsuyama gained strokes with the putter in three of his last four outings, including a pop for 4.3 strokes en route to victory at Riviera, but he's been right around field average each of the three times he's played at TPC San Antonio. He's also been tremendous historically on the greens in Texas, having only lost strokes to the field twice in 11 starts dating back to 2014 at the Valero Texas Open, the Houston Open, the Charles Schwab Challenge, and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

With outstanding recent form from tee to green and plenty of upside with the putter, I feel 20/1 odds are more than fair for a player of Hideki's caliber. He's one of the few high-profile players I trust to hang in there with Scottie Scheffler next week at the Masters.

Byeong Hun An (+3300 BetRivers)

Outside of a brutal missed cut three weeks ago at THE PLAYERS Championship, the 2024 season has treated the 32-year-old well, with a T2 at the Sony Open, a solo fourth at The Sentry, and a T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I've had An on my betting card a few times over the past month, and while he's been rather hit-or-miss during that stretch, I feel confident in his chances on a course where he's finished inside the top 10 twice over his last three trips.

Throwing away the missed cut at TPC Sawgrass, where An lost nearly eight strokes to the field in the second round on one of the most volatile tracks on the PGA Tour, he's been one of the best tee-to-green players in the field this season. An currently sits 25th in that category for the year and pairs that by ranking 22nd in SG: Total. He also continues to pop in my model, as he ranks first in SG: Par-5's (600+ Yards), 13th in SG: Off The Tee, 23rd in Greens Gained, 41st in Total Driving, and 46th in Good Drive Percentage over the last 24 rounds. The reason An doesn't rank as highly in the approach numbers is that he lost 6.73 strokes with his irons in the last round he played, but he had gained strokes in that category in each of his three previous starts. Two of those were gains of over three strokes.

The broomstick-style putter has also been working wonders for An so far this year, as he's gained strokes on the greens in his last three outings and has only lost strokes twice in eight PGA Tour events in 2024. While An has never gained strokes putting on the greens at TPC San Antonio in four starts, he gained over 10 strokes from tee to green en route to a T6 in 2023 and over 14 (!!) strokes in his T7 finish in 2019. With a much-improved process with his new putter, I believe An will continue to flash his impressive ball-striking abilities here and now has enough confidence in his short game to get him over the hump for his first PGA Tour victory.

LONG SHOT PICKS

Lucas Glover (+8000 PointsBet)

Glover has stayed on my radar throughout the early portion of the 2024 campaign, as I've been curious to see how the broomstick-style putter fares for him following his flaming-hot run to finish last season. While his first handful of starts were a nightmare on the greens, the 44-year-old veteran has started to show signs of improvement, as he tinkered with his putter head and has seen much better results recently.

After losing strokes with the putter in seven of his first eight outings this year, Glover gained nearly a full stroke en route to his 11th-place finish at the Valspar Championship two weeks ago. He had popped for nearly 3.5 strokes gained through two rounds before giving a chunk back on the weekend. While that's a small sample size to be encouraged about, I believe it's a promising sign that better days are soon ahead for the six-time PGA Tour winner.

Despite the battles with his putter, Glover has remained consistent in the ball-striking categories this season. He's gained strokes with his irons in all but one start and has been steady per usual from off the tee. Even more encouraging has been the around-the-green game, as he gained over six strokes at the Valspar and ranks eighth in that department among all players in the field over the last 24 rounds. Glover still has the goods from tee to green to contend on the weekend, and if the putter cooperates, it might be enough to get another win on his resume.

Another reason I'm willing to take a chance on Glover this week is because of his history at TPC San Antonio. Even when he was going through his struggles, 'The Glove' somehow found a way to perform well on this course, with a T14 in 2019, a solo fourth in 2021, and a T18 in 2022. It's also worth noting that Glover gained strokes on the greens in all three of those tournaments, suggesting that he's plenty comfortable on these putting surfaces. 

80/1 odds are enough for me to hop back on the Glover train for the first time in 2024.

Austin Eckroat (+9000 BetRivers)

Eckroat finally broke through for his maiden PGA Tour victory one month ago at the Cognizant Classic, and while the rest of the Florida swing didn't treat him well, I think this could be a fantastic bounce-back spot for the 25-year-old Oklahoma native.

After gaining 3.6 strokes putting en route to his win at PGA National, the flat stick immediately betrayed Eckroat again, as he lost nearly two strokes on the greens at Bay Hill and over four strokes at TPC Sawgrass. However, Eckroat still managed to make the cut at both tournaments thanks to his ball striking, as he's now gained over three strokes in that category in three of his last four starts. Among all players in the field this week, Eckroat ranks fifth in SG: Approach over the last 12 rounds.

The ball-striking abilities have remained in peak form since his win, and while it feels like a massive coin flip as to whether or not the putter cooperates, his track record on the greens in Texas makes the feat seem more feasible. Eckroat has gained strokes with the putter in all four of his starts in Texas as a full-time PGA Tour member: 0.98 strokes at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge, 7.34 strokes in his 2nd-place finish at the 2023 CJ Cup Byron Nelson, 1.63 strokes at the 2023 Valero Texas Open, and 2.61 strokes at the 2022 Houston Open. Maybe there's something about the putting surfaces in the Lone Star State that suits his eye, but those stats have me encouraged for a bounceback.

Eckroat also rates out tremendously well in my model, as he ranks seventh in Approach Putt Performance, eighth in Total Driving, eighth in SG: Approach, 23rd in SG: Around The Green, 26th in Par-5s: 600+ Yards, 33rd in Good Drive Percentage, 36th in SG: Long Courses, 39th in Greens Gained, and 40th in Bogey Avoidance over the last 24 rounds. The well-rounded upside Eckroat possesses should do him favors at TPC San Antonio, and while two wins in a month is asking a lot, I think it's 100 percent attainable with his talent.

*All statistics from the PGA Tour website or RickRunGood.com*