Golf best bets: Expert picks for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans

Beau Hossler & Sam Ryder +120 Over Billy Horschel & Tyson Alexander (bet365)

By Spencer Aguiar

Books have been stingy in offering matchups because, while this is a wonky event, there is likely more room for mistakes for bettors to attack those errors.

We may see shops branch things out before Thursday and offer more realistic market areas to attack. However, I thought Billy Horschel and Tyson Alexander were the prime examples of "market overcorrection" for multiple reasons.

Obviously, the victory from Horschel last week at the Coreles Puntacana Championship propels him up this board, which I could somewhat buy for an event he has thrived at in the past, but my model wasn't sold on the partnership here with Alexander.

My model ranked Alexander 111th out of 160 players for Weighted Birdie or Better, 121st for Bogey Avoidance, 143rd for Recacluated Total Driving and 118th for Weighted Proximity.

Horschel may be the ultimate team player who can get the most out of a partner, but this isn't the same situation as when he partnered with Sam Burns or Scott Piercy.

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Nick Taylor & Adam Hadwin Top 10 +230 (FanDuel)

By Matt Gannon

This Canadian duo nearly won this event last season when they finished in solo second place at 28-under. This time around, they are in objectively better form and have a lot more to play for. With the Presidents Cup on the horizon in their homeland of Canada, this is a potential duo that impresses the likes of International Team Captain Mike Weir. These two are without a doubt here to win and will not be spending their nights on Bourbon Street.

They should have a great chance of playing well again at TPC Louisiana because both are extremely accurate off the tee and great putters. Their iron games are streaky, but they have a nearly identical style of play. They thrive in relatively easier conditions like this week, and I expect them to be in contention. This is a great number on them to finish in the top 10.

Greyson Sigg & Chesson Hadley Top 20 +280 (DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

Greyson Sigg is coming off one of his best performances of the year after a tie for ninth at the Corales Puntacana Championship. While that tournament didn’t feature the world’s best talent, the field this week is far closer to Corales’ field than it is to last week’s field at the RBC Heritage.

Sigg is a strong ball-striker who is accurate both off the tee and on the approach while also possessing the ability to scramble when necessary. The one thing he struggles with is the flat stick, which is why Chesson Hadley is a terrific complementary partner.

On Tour this season, Hadley ranks 31st in Strokes Gained: Putting. He has utilized that ability to post two prior top-20 finishes in this tournament.

With his knowledge of these greens and ability to handle them, Hadley should get plenty of help from Sigg’s ball-striking to once again post a top-20 finish at the Zurich Classic.

2024 Zurich Classic Expert Picks, Fades

Favorites We’re Backing

• Aguiar: Rory McIlroy & Shane Lowry +850
• Gannon: Matt Fitzpatrick & Alex Fitzpatrick +2800
• Sartori: Tom Hoge & Maverick McNealy +2500

Mid-Tier Golfer to Back

• Aguiar: Nick Taylor & Adam Hadwin +4000
• Gannon: Andrew Novak & Davis Thompson +5000
• Sartori: Thomas Detry & Robert MacIntyre +4500

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Best Long Shot

• Aguiar: Austin Smotherman / Mac Meissner +15000 – Although I believe we have entered too deep on this board. Something like this would better suited as a top-20 wager.
• Gannon: Thriston Lawrence & Aldrich Potgieter +9000
• Sartori: Chandler Phillips & Jacob Bridgeman +8000

Biggest Bust

• Aguiar: Billy Horschel & Tyson Alexander +3500
• Gannon: Kurt Kitayama & Collin Morikawa +1300
• Sartori: Matt Fitzpatrick & Alex Fitzpatrick +2800

Contrarian Player To Target

• Aguiar: Corey Conners & Taylor Pendrith +3000
• Gannon: Rory McIlroy & Shane Lowry +850
• Sartori: Chan Kim & Doug Ghim +5000

Your Betting Strategy for the 2024 Zurich Classic

Aguiar: If you are trying to handicap this from a statistical perspective, over 29 percent of second shots should come from over 200 yards. However, this essentially is a tournament where you get freedom and extra room for aggressiveness during 'Best Ball' and a lot more strategy from all involved when diving into Alternate Shot iterations of the contest.

We can discuss strategy all week and what it means for each team, but most of the recent winners have been the robust options near the top. I found that to be interesting since it will vary from the consensus "group-think" mentality you get on all shows or articles.

Gannon: This is the only week you can cite “Strokes Gained: Vibes,” and it actually means something. Selecting the teams that actually want to be there and have something to play for is key. We saw what this win brought Davis Riley and Nick Hardy last year. They had no business playing in the Signature Events but I guess they “earned” their golden ticket there.

Outside of that, look for teams who play similar styles of golf as this will be key to gaining ground in alternate shot.

Sartori: This week, I’m looking for pairings who complement each other. There are numerous ways this can be done, whether one golfer is a better putter while the other bombs it off the tee, or if one golfer is accurate with the driver and the other stripes it with his irons.

Outside of that, backing the best ball-strikers is always something to lean on. Course history will also help at TPC Louisiana, but it is not essential to success.

Like we saw at Harbour Town last week, this track is a Pete Dye design that features Poa trivials overseed over dormant Bermuda grass.