Golf best bets: Outright picks for the Players Championship

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass this week for the iconic Players Championship, the best tournament of the 2024 season to date. Reigning champion Scottie Scheffler is coming off a dominant, five-shot win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and he's rightfully a +550 favorite to go back-to-back. 

It's hard to bet against Scheffler when his putter is working, but we can't touch him at that price. Instead, let's target three in-form players to slay the World No. 1 and conquer the fifth major.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2800 DraftKings)

There aren't many golfers playing better than Hideki Matsuyama right now. The 32-year-old recently shot a final-round 62 to win The Genesis Invitational, and he was only two strokes back of Scheffler heading into the final round last week. 

Matsuyama is always intriguing at a golf course like TPC Sawgrass because of his stellar ball striking, but he's also been on fire with his short game of late. The Japanese star has gained strokes from putting in three straight starts. He ranked third in the field at Riviera in strokes gained around the greens and fourth in strokes gained from putting. That's a great sign heading into the Players, where Matsuyama has finished solo fifth, T8 and T7 the three times he's gained strokes on the greens. He also shot a blistering 9-under 63 in the first round in 2020 before the tournament was canceled. 

Sam Burns (+3300 FanDuel)

Sam Burns is on a heater to start the 2024 season. The American has four top-10 finishes in his last five starts, and he was in contention at the API before a final-round 78 pushed him back to T30. That was his first over-par round in six starts this season. 

Burns has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in three straight starts, and he ranks 14th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained from putting. He also ranks second in scoring average behind only Scheffler. The market hasn't caught up to how well Burns is playing right now, so we'll take the discount at 33/1. 

Russell Henley (+6000 FD)

Let's look further down the board for a semi-long shot. Russell Henley is coming off a T4 finish at the API in which he gained strokes in all four major categories. The holes in Florida look like buckets for him right now, as he ranked third in the field at the Cognizant Classic and second at the API in strokes gained from putting.

Henley has back-to-back top-20 finishes at TPC Sawgrass even with mediocre putting performances, and now he's one of the hottest putters on the PGA Tour. The 34-year-old has seven top-15 finishes in his last 11 starts, so we're riding the hot hand.