Golf bets: How to fade amateur Nick Dunlap in the final round of The American Express

Nick Dunlap is on the verge of making PGA Tour history. The 20-year-old sophomore at the University of Alabama will bring a three-shot lead to the final round of The American Express, and he can become the first amateur to win on the PGA Tour in 33 years.

It's hard to root against this underdog story, but it becomes a bit easier when you put some money on the line. Let's find a few ways to fade Dunlap ahead of the most pressure-packed round of his life.

3 Ball Round 4: Justin Thomas > Nick Dunlap and Sam Burns (+110 FanDuel)

We're hopping aboard the Justin Thomas train before the final round of The American Express. JT is coming off an 11-under 61 at the Stadium Course, and he gained a ridiculous 4.35 true strokes from tee to green. That's the second-best mark for any player this week on the Stadium Course, which is where the final round will be taking place. 

Dunlap shot a 7-under 65 on the Stadium Course in Round 2, but he gained most of his strokes on the green. It's hard to imagine he'll replicate that performance in the final round. There's a difference between playing three casual rounds with Wilson Furr, a former Alabama golfer himself, and playing in the final round alongside Thomas and Sam Burns. 

Dunlap hasn't sniffed this kind of pressure, whereas Thomas thrives in it. 

Justin Thomas to win The American Express (+400 FD)

Let's double down on Thomas, who enters the final round four strokes back of Dunlap. Four strokes sounds like a lot, but JT can rack up birdies in a hurry on the Stadium Course. If Dunlap's putter regresses like we're expecting, this could be a tie ball game by the back 9. 

Thomas knows how to put pressure on his opponents with his elite approach game, and he plays his best when he's aggressive and playing from behind. Remember, he won the PGA Championship in 2022 with a seven-shot deficit heading into the final round.