Masters Sunday best bets: Round 4 expert picks, prediction and odds

Masters Sunday Best Bets & Expert Pics

Matt Fitzpatrick -130 Over Patrick Reed (DraftKings)

By Spencer Aguiar

Since Matt Fitzpatrick took a weight out of the top of his driver (which was causing him to over-rotate the club and pull shots), he has shown meaningful improvement off the tee. While he has noted a few issues with a couple of short irons per round not spinning as much as he would like them to this week, Sunday is a favorable spot to back him against Patrick Reed, even at the -130 juice.

Reed remains the biggest overachiever in my model through three rounds at the Masters and likely will close 30+ points higher than this when the market pushes us up the board.

After adding in his baseline short-game metrics to his actual ball-striking, the 2018 Masters winner is overachieving my model's baseline score this week by 7.6 shots. Furthermore, this data is underrating his skills, but even if I used his totals from 2018 when he won at Augusta, he still has exhibited a 5.85-shot overachievement on the greens.

This presents trouble heading into the final round since Reed has lost 2.55 strokes to the field off the tee.

Fitzpatrick's numbers aren't perfect because of his own 2.65-shot discrepancy. Nonetheless, it's significant that Fitzpatrick was a favorite in matchups on Sunday at other shops against Tyrrell Hatton and Will Zalatoris, while Reed was an underdog to Byeong Hun An, Adam Scott and Cameron Smith.

That return only gives me a small percentage of my calculated weight, but Fitzpatrick beating two top-20 golfers in the market at a similar price did shift this into a 3.5% edge for the final round.

Without that boost, consider this a fringe bet that barely would have met my usual 3% threshold to recommend a wager.