PGA 2022: RBC Canadian Open predictions and odds

All anyone is talking about in the world of golf right now is the LIV Tour and what is it going to mean for the PGA. I am not going to get into that, as many far smarter than me are exploring it from every angle. 

In terms of betting, I don't think it is going to mean that much other than you are taking some of the most established players out of a bunch of events (but probably not the majors). That could mean more wins for the top players that remain on the Tour, or some increased volatility as other players suddenly have a better chance to win. We will see. 

The simple fact is that golf is a sophisticated betting market so this will all be factored into the odds and payouts. I am not expecting any advantages for the players or the sportsbooks. 

Getting back to the course, this week we see the return of the Tour to Canada for the first time since the summer of 2019. That and the recent "news" makes this event feel very wide open. This event has not been on this course since 2010, so it will be hard to find recent course mastery that might guide us in our selections this week. We'll have to go a lot more on feeling.

Not knowing what to expect might be awesome though. 

Event Info

Dates: June 9-12
Location: St. George's Golf Course, Toronto, Ontario
Purse: $8,700,000

Top Odds

• Scottie Scheffler +800
• Justin Thomas +900
• Rory McIlroy +900
• Sam Burns +1200
• Cameron Smith +1200
• Matt Fitzpatrick +1800
• Shane Lowry +1800
• Corey Conners +2000
• Tony Finau +2500
• Tyrrell Hatton +2800
• Adam Hadwin +3500
• Harold Varner +3500
• Sebastian Munoz +4000
• Keith Mitchell +4500
• Chris Kirk +4500
• Patrick Reed +4500
• Sahith Theegala +4500

Bets to Consider

Rory McIlroy Top Ten (+120)

He is actually the defending champ in this event (from a few years ago and on a different course). The field is pretty light overall so it seems very likely he can stay near the top of the leaderboard this week. Not a great payoff but it looks like a pretty easy way to double your money.

Cameron Smith +1200

This pick is pretty chalky and you will definitely want to shop because I have seen some +1000s. Smith has a good short game and it looks like that is going to be important this week. He has been playing well the last couple of months too. 

Tony Finau +2500

We are getting double the payoff of Smith for a player also in good form. Finau has two Top 5 finishes in his last four starts. That is the kind of confidence-building success I can easily see leading to a victory. 

Keith Mitchell +4500

This is another shop around spot because I have seen some +5000s. He has just one career win on the Tour but his play has been pretty consistent this season. In a lighter than normal field he is worth a shot. 

Adam Long Top Ten +800

Look past the fact that he has missed the cut in two of his last three events. That is why you are getting a good value in this spot. Long has a pretty good short game and that should enable him to have some success this week, enough to be in the Top 10.