The Sentry Outright Winner Predictions, Picks, Odds

I hope everyone enjoyed the holidays and had a nice little break from golf betting. They say absence makes the heart grow fonder, and that’s certainly the case when it comes to golf. I can’t wait to watch this star-studded field tee it up in Hawaii. While it’s snowing in my neck of the woods, it’s expected to be 80 degrees and sunny in Lahaina.

If you like birdies, you are going to love this event. The Plantation Course at Kapalua is a Par 73 that has played as the easiest course on the PGA Tour in each of the last 4 years. The course measures nearly 7,600 yards but plays much shorter thanks to elevation changes off the tee and rolling hills on the fairways. The last 4 winners of this event all shot at least 25-under par.

The fairways at Kapalua are wide (43 yards on average), and the greens are massive (8,700 square feet on average). The field was able to hit these greens in regulation at an 82% clip in 2024. With golfers hitting so many greens, scrambling isn’t nearly as important as most weeks. This event usually comes down to 3 factors — who can make the most putts, who can take advantage of the Par 5s and who can have a great week with the wedges (over 40% of approach shots will come from less than 150 yards).

After the Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy withdrawals, the betting board is wide open for The Sentry. There are only 60 golfers in the field, and there’s no cut, so don’t panic if your bets are down the leaderboard a bit after Thursday. I’m keeping my outright card small this week and am only betting two golfers.

The Sentry Predictions & Outright Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1600 (DraftKings)

My first bet of the week is Aberg, who has teed it up twice recently. He had to miss quite a bit of time due to a knee injury but finished T17 at the RSM Classic and solo 6th at the Hero World Challenge (+5.6 strokes ball striking). He’s one of the best golfers in the world and could be poised for a huge 2025 campaign. Aberg is one of the best drivers of the ball on the PGA Tour, elite on approach and an above-average putter. His only weakness (around the green) won’t be tested much this week. This is a fair price in a field that doesn’t feature Scheffler and McIlroy.

Sungjae Im +2000 (bet365)

Im got off to a slow start in 2024 but really turned it on in the second half of the year. He finished T13 or better in 12 of his last 16 starts (not including a win in Korea). If you look through his event log, he’s been gaining strokes in every part of his game — off the tee, on approach, around the green and putting. He seems to love Kapalua, as he’s finished T5, T13, T8 and T5 here the last 4 years. Im has been inching closer and closer to another win on the PGA Tour. Perhaps it will come this week in Hawaii. He certainly has the recent form and course history we are looking for.

Happy New Year! Let’s start 2025 with a bang (or an outright winner).