Belmont Stakes: Is Journalism Running On Fumes?

Journalism enters the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga — can we call it the Presummer Derby? — as the 8-5 morning-line favorite, riding high off a courageous win in the Preakness Stakes. 

On paper, he looks like the horse to beat. But there are signs of trouble — signs that sharp handicappers would be wise not to ignore.

Poor Late Speed Ration in the Preakness

Journalism recorded a -11 LSR in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. LSRs (late speed rations) measure energy disbursement in the final stages of a race and have been a foundational part of my handicapping for years. They are not as predictive as speed figures but are far more profitable. 

A -11 LSR is one of the worst of Journalism’s career — and it didn’t happen in a hopeless setup. It came in a winning effort, with the horse in great form. 

This matters. Historically, horses with solid form and a positive LSR produce an impact value (IV) of 1.74 (a 1.00 is neutral) and return approximately $1.92 per wager — with no other handicapping required. 

Journalism’s form is positive, but his energy profile from the Preakness is anything but.

Is it just a blip, a casualty of the rough trip he had in Baltimore? Maybe, but I've seen this pattern before. 

When Arrogate, a Hall of Famer who banked more than $17 million in just 11 starts, earned a -6 LSR in the 2017 Pegasus World Cup, it was the first time he hadn't received a good (-5 or greater) or excellent (0 or greater) figure. 

After winning in Dubai in his next start, Arrogate never won again. His best finish was second in the Pacific Classic — with a -5 LSR.

It gets worse.

In races run at 1 ¼ miles, horses coming off an LSR of -10 or worse have an impact value of just 0.62 — and they bleed money, costing bettors over 50 cents on the dollar. 

It’s not just a red flag, it's a first date in an alley, a wedding ring from Temu, a tool kit from Family Dollar — you get the picture.

Light workout schedule

Bolstering my belief that Journalism may be running on empty is his workout pattern — or lack thereof.

The son of Curlin has logged exactly one four-furlong workout since the Preakness. In the past, when the Belmont Stakes was The Test of the Champion and not a preview of the Travers, this was the kiss of death.

From 2000 to 2023, horses without a race and only one workout in the three weeks leading to the Belmont won just twice in 47 tries (0.44 IV).