Equibase Analysis: Dornoch And Locked May Stand Out In Fountain Of Youth

Saturday’s Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park brings together a field of nine 3-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles, with two horses getting the bulk of the attention. One of those is Dornoch, a full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and who proved himself a top 2-year-old when last seen winning the G2 Remsen Stakes in November. The other top prospect is Locked, who won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity in October before a third of nine finish as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Two of the others have run well in stakes to date, namely Frankie’s Empire and Le Dom Bro, who finished first and second, respectively, in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes last month. Speak Easy and Victory Avenue both enter the Fountain of Youth after finishing first and second, respectively, in a maiden race at the distance of the Swale, so both are stretching out as well as moving up in class into stakes competition. Real Macho is another racing in a stakes race for the first time and enters the race off a 26-1 upset victory four weeks ago in a one-turn mile allowance level event. Merit was third in that race after a 10-length winning debut. Dancing Groom rounds out the field, having finished fifth of seven last month in the G3 Holy Bull Stakes.

The Fountain of Youth will award Kentucky Derby qualifying points with 50-25-15-10-5 going to the first five finishers.

Analysis and Main win contenders:

In the 2023 running of the Fountain of Youth, Forte won off a four-month rest, having won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile the previous fall. The only horse in this year’s Fountain of Youth to have run in the Juvenile is Locked and although he didn’t win (he finished third, beaten 6 3/4 lengths), he may be the one to beat in this field particularly as Forte was trained by Todd Pletcher, who also conditions Locked. Locked also ran faster in two of his three route races as a 2-year-old than any other horse in the field, evidenced by a 109 Equibase Speed Figure earned in his seven-length maiden win last September at a mile in the second start of his career.

Having earned a 98 Figure winning the Breeders’ Futurity the following month, Locked ended his 2-year-old campaign with a 100 figure effort when finishing third, a half-length behind Muth and 1 1/4 lengths in front of Timberlake. Muth made his 3-year-old debut following the Juvenile, winning the G2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita and Timberlake just made his 2024 debut a winning one in the G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn last weekend. Considering Timberlake was coming back from the same amount of time off as Locked to win a Road to the Derby race like the Fountain of Youth, and considering Locked should run even faster as a mature 3-year-old than he did at 2, Locked is the one to beat in this year’s Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Dornoch is another we can expect to run even faster as a 3-year-old than he did when last seen in the fall winning the Remsen Stakes the first week of December with a 99 Equibase Figure, having earned the same figure one race prior to that. Other horses returning from the Remsen in their 3-year-old debuts have run exceptionally well, with Remsen runner-up Sierra Leone having captured the G2 Risen Star Stakes two weeks ago and Remsen third-place finisher Drum Roll Please winning the Jerome Stakes earlier this year. In addition, the seventh and ninth place finishers in the Remsen recently placed in the Holy Bull and Swale Stakes.

Dornoch is also a full brother to Mage, who finished fourth in this race last year before finishing second in the G1 Florida Derby then capturing the Kentucky Derby. As such, there is little doubt Dornoch has all the right physical and mental qualities to run well enough to win this race as well, but he appears slightly less probable because if both he and Locked improve at the same rate from their 2-year-old form, Locked still may be faster.

Frankie’s Empire is the potential upsetter of note, having run this year whereas the other two main contenders have not. Frankie’s Empire enters the Fountain of Youth off a career-best effort in the Swale Stakes four weeks ago at Gulfstream Park. The colt returned from a two-month layoff in late December, earning a then career-best 89 figure with a strong win. Improving nicely in the Swale, Frankie’s Empire displayed an impressive turn of foot to go from fourth on the far turn and lead in the stretch before drawing off late to earn a new career-best 94 figure. If he were to improve by a similar margin to a 99 figure, Frankie’s Empire would be in range of Dornoch’s last two figures of 2023, but Frankie’s Empire might even improve further. This is because he’s bred to excel in a two-turn race like this one. His sire is Classic Empire, winner of the 2016 Breeders’ Futurity (the same race Locked won last year) and also the 2017 Arkansas Derby, with a lot of stamina provided by his dam’s family because Dixie Union is the damsire. As such, I would not count out Frankie’s Empire as a strong contender in the race.

The rest of the field, most who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Dancing Groom (89), Le Dom Bro (87), Merit (81), Real Macho (84), Speak Easy (92) and Victory Avenue (89).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Locked
Dornoch
Frankie’s Empire

$400,000 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes – Grade 2
Gulfstream Park - Saturday, March 2
1 1/16 Miles, 3-Year-Olds
Race 14 – Post Time 6:10 p.m. ET