Equibase Analysis: Wet Paint Should Be Tough Off Layoff In Apple Blossom

The Grade 1, $1.25 million Apple Blossom Handicap drew a field of nine fillies and mares with combined career earnings of more than $7 million. 

Leading the field is a pair of grade one stakes winners in Wet Paint and Adare Manor. Wet Paint won the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks last summer and returns from a five month layoff following an eighth place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Adare Manor won the G1 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes last summer and was recently second in the G1 Beholder Mile.

Honor D Lady is no slouch as the 4-year-old enters this race off a strong win in the G3 Royal Delta Stakes in February. Taxed won the G2 Black Eyed Susan Stakes last May and recently returned from a six month layoff to win a sprint, prepping for this race.

Misty Veil and Bellamore just finished second and third, respectively, in the G2 Azeri Stakes over the track and could be in the mix as well. Shotgun Hottie was fourth in the Azeri, her second race of the year after returning from a layoff. She won two stakes races in a row last summer including the G3 Molly Pitcher Stakes.

Both Flying Connection and Free Like a Girl won two non-graded stakes in a row and although the step up in class to this Grade 1 level is significant, considering they have won 24 races combined in their careers, neither is without a chance to succeed.

Top Contenders:

Wet Paint loves racing at Oaklawn and this is one of a few reasons she should be the one to beat in this year’s Apple Blossom Stakes. As a 3-year-old last winter and spring, Wet Paint reeled off three straight wins in stakes races. She won the Martha Washington Stakes in January, the Honeybee Stakes in February and the Fantasy Stakes in March, improving to a then career-best 97 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure in the Fantasy. After a fourth place effort in the Kentucky Oaks and a runner-up effort in the Monomoy Girl Stakes, Wet Paint re-established herself as one of the top females in the stakes division with a win in the Coaching Club American Oaks, improving to a new career-best 101 figure. She ended her 2023 campaign with her worst effort of the year when eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, but she’s been freshened and allowed to grow up since and trainer Brad Cox has a phenomenal record bringing horses back in the spring off a long layoff. A Race Lens query shows that from 10 starters over the past five years who have returned from a layoff of four to seven months, in graded stakes dirt routes like this one, Cox’ runners have won four of those 10. Additionally, two horses who had not run since the Breeders’ Cup (Plum Pretty in 2012 and Stellar Wind in 2017) returned off similar layoffs to win this race. Considering her best effort is good enough to win and that she is a 4-year-old who still has improving to do and that she loves racing at Oaklawn, West Paint should be quite competitive in this race.

Honor D Lady is another 4-year-old who has done nearly everything asked of her in her 10-race career, winning four times and finishing second or third in another five. She won the Remington Park Oaks at the distance of the Apple Blossom in September with a 95 ™ figure, then finished third in the Comely Stakes to end her 3-year-old season. Returning off a three month layoff in February, Honor D Lady won the Royal Delta Stakes with a 98 figure she can easily improve upon in her second start off the layoff. In 2022, Letruska won the Royal Delta before winning the Apple Blossom. Before shipping from her south Florida base, Honor D Lady put in a sparkling workout of a half-mile in 47.6 seconds which was the best of 86 at that distance on the day so she is sending all the right signals leading into what could be another career-best effort.

Adare Manor also makes her second start off a layoff. After a seventh place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff last fall, she returned last month for a strong second place finish in the Beholder Mile, tying her previous career-best figure of 107 ™ earned when victorious in the Santa Margarita Stakes last June. Trainer Bob Baffert won this race in 2012 with Plum Pretty, who had not run since the Distaff, so with Adare Manor having had a race under her belt this year, a similar effort may be forthcoming.

Honorable mention goes to Misty Veil and to Bellamore, who recently finished second and third, respectively, in the Azeri Stakes, the local prep for the Apple Blossom. Historically, horses who run well in the Azeri have made their mark in this race, with six of the last 10 winners of this race having finished first or second in the Azeri in their previous starts. In this year’s Azeri, Misty Veil earned a 100 ™ figure which matches up well with the best in this group, while Bellamore earned a 98 figure. Prior to that, Bellamore won the Houston Ladies Classic at this distance with a 101 figure, so with just slight improvement she may have a strong say in the outcome as well.

The rest of the field, with their best representative ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Flying Connection (99), Free Like a Girl (106), Shotgun Hottie (102) and Taxed (97).

Win Contenders:

Wet Paint
Honor D Lady
Adare Manor

Apple Blossom Handicap
Saturday, April 13 – Post Time 6:46 PM ET
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Fillies and Mares, Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $1.25 Million