Jim Dandy: Is now the time to beat Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Sovereignty?

Flattered by Journalism’s victory in the Grade 1 Haskell last weekend, Sovereignty makes his return against just four others in Saturday’s Grade 2, $500,000 Jim Dandy. At 1 1/8 miles, the Jim Dandy is the main local prep for the Grade 1 Travers on Aug. 22. 

Journalism, who Sovereignty beat in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, stormed down the stretch late to nip Gosger and Goal Oriented in the Haskell. It was a similar victory to his Preakness win. Journalism did to those two what Sovereignty has done to Journalism in their two meetings. In the Derby, Journalism, the favorite, looked like a winner, only to be caught by a storming Sovereignty. In the Belmont, Journalism once again appeared home but Sovereignty came with an even more devastating kick.

On paper, Sovereignty looks like a cinch Saturday, and is listed as the heavy 2-5 morning-line favorite. However, a deeper look into his form cycle reveals he may not be primed for his best run. Trainer Bill Mott gave Sovereignty some time off after winning last year’s Grade 3 Street Sense and brought him back to win the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. Next out in the Florida Derby, Sovereignty lacked his usually late power, finishing second behind Tappan Street. Afterwards, trainer Bill Mott admitted Sovereignty wasn’t fully cranked for that race, given he was likely already in the Derby field. 

“This doesn’t have to be his best race. Sometimes you can look at it and say, maybe that’s a good thing. You don’t want their best race before the big event,” Mott said after the Florida Derby.

Mott opted not to run Sovereignty in the Preakness, stating his horse runs better with more time off. Mott’s tactics once again paid off in the Belmont. Sovereignty did show some more early pace in the Belmont, keeping up with a decent pace.

“He broke very well today again like he’s (been) doing. He put himself in a good spot,” said Junior Alvarado, who will be aboard again Saturday, after the Belmont. “I was a little shocked at how close, but at the same time (happy with) how easily he was doing everything.

Now, with the Jim Dandy merely a steppingstone to the Travers, it begs the question if Sovereignty will be at his best Saturday - and if he’s not, does it matter? If Sovereignty brings B game - or likely his C or D game - he should still handle this field with ease. 

If anyone can poke holes in Sovereignty’s case, it may be Mo Plex, winner of the Grade 3 Ohio Derby last out. Mo Plex appears to be the lone speed in the Jim Dandy and will likely deploy similar front-running tactics to that of his Ohio Derby win. The Ohio Derby was Mo Plex’s first start at 1 1/8 miles and around two turns. After breaking outward from the far outside post, Mo Plex got to the front and never looked back. Trained by Jeremiah Englehart, Mo Plex is 2 for 2 at Saratoga and gets Manny Franco aboard at a juicy 10-1 on the morning line.

Many “wise guys” backed Baeza in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, citing his potential to improve with each start. Baeza, second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, drew into the Kentucky Derby off the also-eligible list, and ran solidly for third. His third in the Belmont was a little more dull but still decent. Behind Mo Plex, Baeza probably possesses the next-most early speed, though it’s not much. From the rail, Hector Berrios will likely have to use Baeza early to get good position. The pair are set as the 3-1 second choice on the morning line. Baeza, trained by John Shirreffs, does indeed have the right to improve once again but he’s finished behind Sovereignty twice and that will probably be the case again Saturday.

Sandman also ran in the Kentucky Derby but appeared to dislike the sloppy track. A Grade 1 winner himself, taking the Arkansas Derby, Sandman turned for home in the Preakness looking like he had a chance but appeared to wander a bit after coming out from behind horses. It’s unlikely he would have caught Journalism, or Gosger, but still hindered his run. Trainer Mark Casse will outfit Sandman with blinkers for the first time and switches back to Jose Ortiz, who was aboard in the Arkansas Derby. Sandman is 6-1 on the morning line and breaks from post 2.

After starting his career on turf in Europe, Hill Road shipped to Del Mar to run a surprising third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November. From there, he was switched to trainer Chad Brown, ran third in the Tampa Bay Derby, won the Grade 3 Peter Pan, and finished seventh in the Belmont. Irad Ortiz Jr. will be aboard the deep closer, listed at 12-1 on the morning line.

Sovereignty is obviously the best horse in Saturday’s field but if there was ever a time and a place for him to lose, it may be with a lack of early speed, a mere prep for a bigger race, and at the “Graveyard of Favorites.”

• Also on Saturday’s card, last year’s Grade 1 Whitney winner, Arthur’s Ride, makes his return in race 4. Arthur’s Ride, trained by Bill Mott, hasn’t been seen since he finished 12th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Off his Whitney win, Mott wheeled Arthur’s Ride back in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, where he finished fifth as the favorite. Arthur’s Ride will get Junior Alvarado aboard as the 4-5 morning-line favorite against a solid field of five others.

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