Ken McPeek: Arkansas Derby Entrant Mystik Dan 'A Fast Horse - Period'

He can answer the question Saturday at Oaklawn.

Mystik Dan is among 10 horses entered in the $1.5 million G1-Arkansas Derby, a 1 1/8-mile event that is a major steppingstone to the Kentucky Derby, the first leg of the Triple Crown.

The Arkansas Derby anchors a 13-race program that begins at 12:05 p.m. (Central). Probable post time for the Arkansas Derby, the 12^th race, is 6:47 p.m. With sunny skies and temperatures approaching 80 degrees, the infield is scheduled to be open.

In addition to the Arkansas Derby, there are three other stakes races on the program – $750,000 G2-Fantasy for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 miles, $500,000 G3-Oaklawn Mile for older horses and the $250,000 Matron for older fillies and mares at six furlongs.

The Arkansas Derby field from the rail out: 

1. Will Take It, Francisco Arrieta to ride, 121 pounds, 50-1 on the morning line; 
2. Timberlake, Flavien Prat, 124, 9-5; 
3. Dimatic, Cristian Torres, 121, 20-1; 
4. Time for Truth, Rafael Bejarano, 121, 20-1; 
5. Liberal Arts, Tyler Gaffalione, 124, 15-1; 
6. Informed Patriot, Ricardo Santana Jr., 121, 30-1; 
7. Muth, Juan Hernandez, 124, 8-5; 
8. Just Steel, Keith Asmussen, 124, 15-1; 
9. Mystik Dan, Brian Hernandez Jr., 124, 5-2; and 
10. Imperial Gun, Emmanuel Esquivel, 121, 30-1.

The Arkansas Derby could award as many as 200 points to its top five eligible finishers (100-50-25-15-10, respectively) for the Kentucky Derby May 4 at Churchill Downs. The race is limited to 20 starters. Mystik Dan has 21 points currently to rank 20^th on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard compiled by Churchill Downs.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, the speedy Mystik Dan collected 20 points for a dazzling eight-length victory in his last start, the $800,000 G3-Southwest Stakes Feb. 3 at Oaklawn. Mystik Dan (101) generated the second-highest Beyer Speed Figure for a 3-year-old in 2024 with that performance.

But was it the product of a muddy track and/or an off-the-pace, ground-saving ride by Hernandez?

“That’s kind of the unknown, the sloppy track that day,” Hernandez said. “But, I mean, he’s a horse that we’ve liked all along. We’ve always thought a lot of him and he went ahead and proved it in the Southwest. The nice thing about him is he’s so tactical. He’s naturally fast, but now he’s kind of learning his lessons. We got him to settle the other day. He sat midpack and kind of cruised along and finished it off well.”

A son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents, Mystik Dan had been based at the Fair Grounds for McPeek since arctic temperatures, snow and rain forced Oaklawn to cancel 11 days of training (Jan. 13-23). The Southwest was Oaklawn’s second Kentucky Derby points race.

McPeek passed the $1.25 million G2-Rebel Stakes Feb. 24 and opted to train Mytik Dan up to the Arkansas Derby. Mystik Dan finished fifth in Oaklawn’s first Kentucky Derby points race, the $300,000 Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 1. The Rebel was Oaklawn’s third Kentucky Derby points race.

Although the Southwest was run over a muddy track, McPeek noted that Mystik Dan received a 96 Beyer Speed Figure for his front-running 7 ¾-length maiden special weight victory Nov. 12 at Churchill Downs. The 5 ½-furlong race was contested over a fast surface.

“He’s a fast horse – period,” McPeek said. “He did that on a dry track. That didn’t have anything to do with the mud. Spaced him a lot. Skipped the Rebel. He’s had plenty of time in between. One bad thing is all of our eggs are in this basket to get points. But if he’s good enough, he’ll get there.”

Conversely, Timberlake (66 points) ranks No. 5 on the latest Kentucky Derby leaderboard after winning the Rebel in his 3-year-old debut. It was trainer Brad Cox’s seventh victory in Oaklawn’s last 15 Kentucky Derby qualifying races.

Cox is seeking a record third consecutive victory in Oaklawn’s Arkansas Derby after winning the race in 2022 with Cyberknife and again last year with Angel of Empire.

“(Going) to have a deeper field for the Arkansas Derby,” Cox said. “We’re excited about giving him the opportunity there. We’ll see what happens. Hope he continues his march to the Kentucky Derby after that.”

Cox said he considered the one-mile $300,000 G3-Gotham Stakes March 2 at Aqueduct for Timberlake’s 3-year-old debut before opting for the Rebel. It was his first victory around two turns. Cox chose the Arkansas Derby over the $1 million G1-Blue Grass Stakes April 6 at Keeneland. Timberlake had concluded 2023 with a victory in the $500,000 G1-Champagne Stakes – a one-turn mile – Oct. 7 at Aqueduct and a fourth-place finish in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at 1 1/16 miles Nov. 3 at Santa Anita.

“I didn’t know, honestly, if I had enough time,” Cox said, referring to the Rebel. “I was thinking about the Gotham as well. He was doing good and we wanted to give him experience around two turns. He had that run in the Breeders’ Cup around two turns. He didn’t handle the first turn real well. The other day (Rebel), he did. He settled well. I think if he gets a similar trip, he’ll be very competitive.”

Program favorite Muth is running for style points, owing to trainer Bob Baffert’s suspension from Churchill Downs after Medina Spirit, his 2021 Kentucky Derby winner, was disqualified for a medication violation.

Muth was a finalist for an Eclipse Award as the county’s champion 2-year-old male after compiling a 2-2-0 mark from four starts. The son of champion Good Magic, unraced outside California, recorded his biggest career victory to date in the $300,000 G1-American Pharoah Stakes Oct. 7 at Santa Anita. Muth closed 2023 with a runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Muth hasn’t started since winning the seven-furlong $200,000 G2-San Vicente Stakes Jan. 6 at Santa Anita. He was scheduled to run in the Rebel, but Baffert scrapped the trip because he wasn’t satisfied with the colt’s Feb. 18 workout at Santa Anita. Baffert is seeking his record-tying fifth Arkansas Derby victory and record-extending 20^th in a Kentucky Derby points race at Oaklawn.

Muth has been a forward factor early throughout his career, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be on the lead Saturday under Juan Hernandez, his regular rider, Baffert said.

“It’s one of those things where he knows the horse,” Baffert said. “I don’t like to give too many instructions, really. The good riders, they just play the break. The main thing is play the break, see what happens.”

Baffert said trainer Rodolphe Brisset will saddle Muth because Jimmy Barnes is in the United Arab Emirates with Newgate, who is entered in Saturday’s $12 million G1-Dubai World Cup. Barnes normally accompanies Baffert’s horses to Oaklawn as the trainer’s traveling assistant.

Late-running Liberal Arts finished third in the Southwest, his 3-year-old debut, but galloped out strongly. Trainer Robert Medina also skipped the Rebel (the Southwest was postponed one week because of winter weather) to train up to the Arkansas Derby. The gray son of Arrogate has six published workouts at his base, The Thoroughbred Center in Kentucky, since the Southwest and gets an additional sixteenth of a mile to work with Saturday.

“There’s no excuse,” Medina said. “Looking at it on paper, there doesn’t look like an abundance of speed, but usually when it looks like that, there will be enough pace. He is what he is. I think he’ll be five, six lengths behind them. He’s going to have to make his run and whether that’s going to be good enough, we’re going to find out.”

Grade 3 winner Liberal Arts (19) and Just Steel (15) rank 24^th and 29, respectively, on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

Just Steel was second in the Smarty Jones and Southwest and seventh in the Rebel for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen is scheduled to start Rebel fifth-place finisher Dimatic, Imperial Gun and Informed Patriot in search of a fifth Arkansas Derby victory.

Informed Patriot finished third in the Smarty Jones. Smarty Jones winner Catching Freedom returned to win the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) at 1 3/16 miles last Saturday at Fair Grounds for Cox.

Lightly raced Time for Truth, the possible pacesetter, was an entry-level allowance winner in his two-turn debut March 2 at Oaklawn for trainer Ron Moquett of Hot Springs. Will Take It is a three-race maiden for trainer Eddie Milligan Jr.

The Arkansas Derby, the country’s richest Kentucky Derby prep race, has a record purse in 2024 after previously being worth $1.25 million.