Kentucky Derby Betting Angles presented by FanDuel: The Most Productive Preps

Though it didn’t have its first running until 1952 – when the Kentucky Derby was celebrating its 78th year – the Florida Derby has become horse racing’s king of the Derby preps.

Beginning with Dark Star’s 24-1 upset of Native Dancer in the 1953 Run for the Roses, there have been 25 Kentucky Derby winners to have run in Gulfstream Park’s premier race for 3-year-olds. While Dark Star finished 13th in the Florida Derby (he bounced back to win the Derby Trial Stakes at Churchill Downs five days before the Derby), 15 Florida Derby winners have gone on to wear the garland of roses in Louisville. Seven of those dual winners have emerged since 1995, and last year’s Florida Derby runner-up, Mage, won the Kentucky Derby. That means eight of the last 29 Kentucky Derby winners have finished first or second in the Florida Derby.

The Florida Derby-Kentucky Derby winners since 1995 are:

Thunder Gulch, 1995
Monarchos, 2001
Barbaro, 2006
Big Brown, 2008
Orb, 2013
Nyquist, 2016
Always Dreaming, 2017

Will 2024 Florida Derby winner Fierceness add to this list? The City of Light colt ran off to a record winning margin of 13 1/2 lengths at Gulfstream Park.

Prior to 2005, the Florida Derby was run in early-to-mid-March, giving trainers an option to race there and then have a final prep race, usually in the Blue Grass at Keeneland or Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. However, since 2005, the Florida Derby is held on the last Saturday in March or first Saturday in April, effectively making it the final prep, since trainers now tend to space races at least a month apart when possible.

So the Florida Derby is the most predictive prep race for a Kentucky Derby win. What about the others?

The aforementioned Blue Grass Stakes has had 23 runners (including 11 winners) go on to victory in the Kentucky Derby, but this is a race that dates back to 1911, so the percentage of dual winners is not nearly as high as the Florida Derby. For many years, the Blue Grass was the last major Kentucky Derby prep; it was run on a Thursday, nine days before the Run for the Roses. That changed when horsemen began avoiding the race in the late 1980s because of the short spacing to the Kentucky Derby and the American Graded Stakes Committee downgraded the Blue Grass from Grade 1 to Grade 2. It has since been restored to Grade 1 status.

After the race was moved on the calendar to an earlier date, the Blue Grass produced four Kentucky Derby winners in the 1990s: Unbridled (third in 1990), Strike the Gold (1991 winner), Sea Hero (fourth in 1993), and Thunder Gulch (fourth in 1995). Since then, Street Sense is the only Blue Grass runner (second in 2007) to go on to victory in the Kentucky Derby.

Sierra Leone, this year’s Blue Grass winner, will try to end that lengthy drought. The stretch-running colt by Gun Runner overtook an improving Justify colt, Just a Touch, in deep stretch to win by 1 1/2 lengths at Keeneland.

Next, with 20 Kentucky Derby winners, is the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, a race that had its first running in 1925. Like the Blue Grass, its best days were more than 20 years ago. Could it be a coincidence that both the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial became less predictive of Kentucky Derby winners when the date of the Florida Derby was moved, preventing horses from running in the Florida Derby and either the Wood or Blue Grass?

From 1973 (when Triple Crown winner Secretariat finished third in the Wood) through 1981 (when Pleasant Colony won both the Wood and Kentucky Derby), Aqueduct’s big Derby prep supplied six of nine Kentucky Derby winners.

But Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 was the last Wood Memorial winner to go on to victory at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Two Wood Memorial runners-up, Monarchos in 2001 and Funny Cide in 2003, went on to Derby glory. There have been none since 2003.

Like Blue Grass winner Sierra Leone, 2024 Wood Memorial winner Resilience, a colt by Into Mischief, will be bucking recent history in his attempt to win under the Twin Spires.

Unlike the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial, the Santa Anita Derby – with 19 runners going on to win the Kentucky Derby – has been extremely productive in the 21^st century, with five runners (including three winners) since 2005 going on to victory in Kentucky. Three consecutive Santa Anita Derby runners in the 1990s also won the Kentucky Derby. That makes eight Kentucky Derby winners in the last 27 renewals coming out of California’s major Derby prep, or 30 percent, making it virtually identical to the Florida Derby in terms of productivity.

Stronghold, the son of Ghostzapper who won this year's Santa Anita Derby, should not be overlooked.

Other races of note:

The Arkansas Derby has had seven runners go on to victory in the Kentucky Derby, all of them since 1983 and four in the 21^st century. Most recent runner was Arkansas Derby third-place finisher Country House, who won the 2019 Kentucky Derby via disqualification of Maximum Security. This year's Arkansas Derby winner, Muth, is not eligible to compete in the Kentucky Derby because of the ongoing ban of trainer Bob Baffert from Churchill Downs Inc. properties.

The Louisiana Derby dates back to 1894 but only five runners from that race have worn the roses, most recently Mandaloun, the sixth-place finisher in 2021 who was awarded the Kentucky Derby following the drug disqualification of Medina Spirit.

The full list of 3-year-old races that have produced Kentucky Derby winners:

Florida Derby, 25
Blue Grass, 23
Wood Memorial, 20
Santa Anita Derby, 19
Fountain of Youth, 14
San Felipe, 13
Arkansas Derby, 7
Louisiana Derby, 5
Holy Bull, 3
Hutcheson, 3
Jeff Ruby Steaks, 3
Rebel, 3
Risen Star, 3
Robert B. Lewis, 3
Bay Shore, 2
Lecomte, 2
Lexington, 2
Sham, 2
Southwest, 2
Tampa Bay Derby, 2
El Camino Real Derby, 1
Gotham, 1
Gun Runner, 1
John Battaglia, 1
Palm Beach, 1
Sunland Derby, 1