Rx for ROI

Not surprisingly, horses making no medication changes today have a 1.02 impact value (IV) in over 590,000 races.

An impact value (IV) measures how often a factor wins compared to what is expected. For example, if the favorite is victorious 38% of the time and represents 13.5% of all starters, the IV is 2.81 (.38 ÷ .135).

An IV greater than 1.00 means the factor wins more than expected. An IV of 1.00 is neutral, and an IV of less than 1.00 signifies the factor wins less than expected.

A Hard Kick in the Bute

You probably noticed that horses changing medication and racing on bute have terrible IV values. This is not surprising given that bute is an anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) that works like aspirin or ibuprofen in humans.  

A horse experiencing inflammation probably isn't up to performing at a peak level, any more than a human with even a slight headache will be at their best during a kid’s birthday party at Chuck E. Cheese (if “moment of silence” was on the menu, I know it would crush.)

Context Is Everything

Here’s the part you may not have noticed (if you did, I’m hosting a party at Chuck E. Cheese this weekend, and you’re invited). The numbers show that medication changes aren’t universally good or bad — it depends on why the change was made.

Horses that ran well last time and didn’t tamper with their meds showed a 1.42 IV and -22% ROI in my study. Those who did make a change recorded a 1.25 IV and cost their backers 23 cents on every wagered dollar. These numbers back up the old saying: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

But check out the digits on horses that ran poorly last time: a 0.80 IV and -29% ROI with no medication change, and a 0.82 IV and -25% ROI when medication was added or subtracted — a marked improvement. We see the same phenomenon with horses coming off a layoff, where the IV on those changing meds is nearly neutral at 0.95.

Again, this makes sense. You don’t go on a diet because you’re too skinny or become a vegan because you don’t like talking endlessly about being a vegan.

In other words, when things are good, don't go changin'. When things are bad, tell Billy Joel to mind his own business and mix it up.

The Times They Are A-Changin'

Now, before you start seeing syringes every time you handicap a race, keep in mind: my database reflects 2012–2021. That was the “Wild West” era compared to today.

Since then, stake races, 2-year-old races, and even many overnights have instituted medication restrictions — especially on Lasix, which is now banned in many elite races entirely. These new rules mean fewer drugs, more changes, and perhaps fewer excuses when your pick fades at the eighth pole like standards at last call.

Status: It’s Complicated

Legal medications in racing aren’t black and white. While many love to malign trainers and backstretch workers by calling them greedy narcissists who care only about the bottom line, my experience has been the exact opposite. Many — if not most — in the racing world would kick both Jack and Rose off that piece of driftwood if it meant saving one of their horses (why a horse would be on a luxury liner in the early 1900s I don’t know).

Rightly or wrongly, they believe that medications are humane, preventing their horses from suffering needlessly. Regardless of what you believe, the stats seem to show that stability is strength.

If a horse is running well, any change is a potential bubble-burster, whereas horses in poor form often need a different routine — provided bute isn't part of it.  

Whether it’s Dancer’s Image in 1968 or an anonymous claimer in the Tuesday night finale at Turf Paradise, the line between legal and illegal drugs and dosages is often blurred.

But, ultimately, we want to see races decided on the track, not in the lab.

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