2024 MLB Home Run Derby: Odds and props preview, winner, longest HR, more

2024 MLB Home Run Derby Odds (Winner)

Odds via DraftKings

Home Run Derby Format Changes

MLB has tweaked the format for this year's Derby — there is no seeding in the first round as the eight participants will try to hit as many homers as possible, with the top four advancing to the semifinal stage. In the event of a tie between multiple players, longest home run distance will be the tiebreaker.

In the semifinals, the event switches to No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No 2 vs. No. 3 — this seeding is determined by the amount of home runs hit in the first round.

As far as time per round, that remains the same — three minutes for the first two rounds, two minutes for the final round. However, there is now is a maximum amount of pitches that a hitter can see per round. The first round and semis conclude after three minutes or 40 pitches are thrown to the batter (whichever comes first). The final round is capped at two minutes or 27 pitches.

Bonus time has also received a facelift. Rather than an automatic 30 seconds of extra time (plus potentially 30 additional seconds if a player hits two homers of 440 feet), contestants now get three outs. If a contestant launches a HR of at least 425 feet during this bonus period, he gets a fourth out to work with.

Player to Hit Longest Home Run

Bobby Witt Jr. is the betting favorite to hit the longest home run. While that may surprise some, it shouldn't — Witt has the longest home run of all Derby participants this season with a 468-foot shot — the fourth-longest HR this season — against the Tigers in May.

The long-shot AL MVP candidate (+2000) also has the longest average HR distance in the field at 418 feet, which ranks sixth overall in MLB.

Distance of Longest Home Run

• Over/Under 485 feet (-110/-110)

Total Home Runs Hit

• Over/Under 263.5 (-110/-110)

Most Home Runs in Round 1

Already the favorite to win the Derby outright, Pete Alonso also paces the most homers in Round 1 market. Because the four-time All-Star is obsessed with this event, we have a large sample of how he fares.

Alonso has averaged 22.5 home runs in Round 1 over four appearances. He has had the most first-round homers just once, with a Derby-record 35 dingers in 2021. His lowest total was 14 in 2019, when he barely edged out Carlos Santana to advance to the semifinals.

Total Home Runs Hit (Round 1)

• Over/Under 156.5 (-110/-110)