2025 MLB Farm Review: Tampa Bay Rays

The big name in Charleston this season was Theo Gillen, the Rays’ outfield prospect who was a first-round pick by Tampa in 2024. Gillen only played 73 games but made a loud impact in the Carolina League this season.

Gillen slashed .267/.433/.387 with five home runs and 18 extra-base hits. He made a fair bit of hard contact with the Riverdogs. However, perhaps his larger impact came by way of his ability to get on base. The 20-year-old walked 64 times over 73 games, posted a Whiff% of 26% — above the 50th percentile — and also stole a team-high 36 bases.

Aside from Gillen, the Riverdogs hosted some other notable hitting prospects.

Catcher Nathan Flewelling, a third-round pick in 2024, walked 89 times over 102 games for Charleston. Brendan Summerhill, a late joiner after he was drafted in July by the Rays, picked up 12 hits in 10 games and posted a sub-20% Whiff%. Brailer Guerrero posted a .744 OPS as a 19-year-old.

Moving to the pitching staff, the Riverdogs’ pitching staff included three very regular starters: Jose Urbina, Jacob Kmatz, and Ryan Andrade. All threw at least 90 innings in Low-A.

Urbina (25.5% Whiff%) struck out 96 over 92 innings in a season where he pitched all of it as a 19-year-old. Kmatz, a fifth-round pick in 2024, posted a 5.56 ERA and a 23.7% Whiff%, the latter of which ranked in the bottom-30.

Reliever Noah Beal struck out 34 over 27.2 IP and posted one of the highest Whiff% in the circuit, above 40%.

Bowling Green Hot Rods

Bowling Green just missed out on the South Atlantic League final thanks to a strong overall roster filled with prospects both in the lineup and on the pitching staff.

The Hot Rods’ lineup included a lot of toolsy players, including speedster Aidan Smith, former Kentucky standout Emilien Pitre, plus power hitter Mac Horvath and 2023 first-round pick Adrian Santana.

Smith, despite an elevated Whiff% above 32% and 143 strikeouts over 102 games, hit 14 home runs and stole 41 bases. Horvath, meanwhile, finished with a team-high 16 home runs and also stole 41 bases.

Outfielder Noah Myers walked 68 times over 85 games, which helped him lead the Midwest League in walks (18.7% BB%).

Bowling Green had four players (Myers, Horvath, Pitre, Smith) in the top-20 among BB%. Pitre, aside from the walks, had a Midwest League-high 120 hits and one of the lowest Whiff% (24%) in the circuit.

And for Santana, he didn’t hit for much power (17 XBH over 85 GP). However, he did enough to hold his own and stole a team-best 47 bases.

Former Texas A&M slugger Hunter Haas, a fourth-round pick by the Rays in 2023, hit .162/.269/.247 with four home runs and 14 extra-base hits over 83 games. His 36.5% Whiff% was among the worst 15 in the South Atlantic League.

As for the pitching staff, the Hot Rods’ “big three” in the rotation were former Duke pitcher Marcus Johnson, T.J. Nichols, and Gary Gill Hill, the latter of whom has been considered a high-upside arm.

Gill Hill, as noted in our South Atlantic League recap, didn’t miss a ton of bats. However, he walked only 30 over 136.2 IP and was a groundball machine for the Hot Rods.

Johnson averaged a strikeout per inning (138 K over 138 IP). But on the other hand, Johnson gave up 28 home runs, most in the circuit.

Nichols (20 HR over 96.2 IP) was also vulnerable to the home run ball. What worked in Nichols’ favor was a Whiff% over 31%.

Montgomery Biscuits

Part of the reason why the Rays have been able to trade numerous pitchers off their MLB roster without skipping a beat is because of who the team has been able to acquire to replace them.

When the Rays traded Isaac Paredes to Chicago in 2024, the Rays got back an impactful reliever (Hunter Bigge) plus Ty Johnson. Johnson, a 15th-round pick by the Cubs in 2023, had a big year with Montgomery. The 24-year-old right-hander struck out 149 over 110 innings, while opposing batters hit just .174 off him in Double-A.

Additionally, Johnson had a 35.7% Whiff%, second-highest among pitchers who had at least 500 induced swings in the Southern League.

Brody Hopkins, acquired alongside Aidan Smith in the Randy Arozarena trade, struck out 141, fourth-most in the circuit. Walks were somewhat of a problem, as he conceded 60 over 116 innings. But much like Johnson, neither gave up more than seven home runs. Hopkins allowed seven over 116 innings.

Jackson Baumeister (26.7% Whiff%), meanwhile, struck out 51 over 62.1 IP with the Biscuits. Baumeister was acquired in July 2024 via the Zach Eflin trade.

And getting back to Nichols, he finished off the year with 37 strikeouts over 37 innings and a sub-1.00 ERA with the Biscuits.

As for the offense, the Biscuits had the player with the highest on-base percentage (.405 OBP), as well as three players in the bottom 10 of that category (Will Simpson, Brayden Taylor, Cooper Kinney). Both Taylor and Kinney were former first-round picks of the organization.

Taylor had an absurdly strange season. He didn’t whiff much and had the lowest GB% (28%) in the Southern League. However, he slashed .173/.289/.286 with just eight home runs on the year.

Kinney had a 30.5% Whiff% and 13 home runs over 117 games.

Jadher Areinamo, acquired this past July for Danny Jansen and added to the 40-man roster in November, hit four home runs and 12 extra-base hits once he arrived in the organization. Areinamo was one of the most consistent bat-to-ball (18.5% Whiff%) hitters in the Southern League.

Durham Bulls

What will become of Carson Williams at the Major League level?

We’ll find out for certain soon, as Williams debuted in the Majors in September and has a lane to regular action in 2026. But despite his prowess in the middle defensively and power, it also comes with drawbacks.

As noted in our International League recap, Williams had one of the worst Whiff% in the circuit and also expanded outside of the zone often. It resulted in 154 strikeouts over 111 games and furthered questions surrounding his hit tool.

The Durham Bulls saw several hitters further their careers this past year, aside from Williams.

Longtime Minor League Bob Seymour hit 30 home runs and made his MLB debut late. Tanner Murray and Tristan Peters, both of whom are now White Sox, each hit at least 15 home runs. Former LSU standout Tre’ Morgan, who posted a .398 on-base percentage, could be the next incarnation of Yandy Diaz.

As for the pitching staff, both Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour were among the best pitchers in the International League. And, both also received time in the Rays’ rotation.

Early Top 5 Prospect List

1. Carson Williams
2. Anderson Brito
3. Theo Gillen
4. Daniel Pierce
5. Brody Hopkins

Williams, despite his flaws, has among the best pure tools in the organization. It would be criminal not to have him at #1, although it’s closer than one would think.

And in a deep group of prospects, Anderson Brito could be the best pitcher in that organization. Tampa Bay acquired him in the three-way deal that sent Brandon Lowe, Mason Montgomery, and Jake Mangum to the Pirates.